Spread: TCU (-13.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold TCU (33%) · TCU at 53¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 14

TCU53¢Kansas State47¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

TCU

Consensus Traders

TCU 33%

Total Value

$36.6K

Combined PnL

$260.95

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 52.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralTCU at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

TCU

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

TCU53%

Kansas State48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

TCU3 traders

Total Value$21.5K

Total Shares41,317

Combined PnL-$101.42

Kansas State6 traders

Total Value$15.1K

Total Shares30,808

Combined PnL+$362.37

TCU — 33%Kansas State — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	TCUavg 52.7¢	$19.2K	$19.1K	-$76.53	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
BO BoggsFromShawshankCTR	Kansas Stateavg 47¢	$6.9K	$7.0K	+$73.23	3% 12-393 (405)
BO Bozos14CTR	Kansas Stateavg 48¢	$5.0K	$5.3K	+$260.42	6% 9-132 (141)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR	Kansas Stateavg 50¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$25	59% 1135-781 (1916)
PU purplegatto	TCUavg 50¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$18.88	68% 2645-1233 (3878)
FO Forecastication2	TCUavg 50¢	$600.14	$594.14	-$6	45% 261-317 (578)
GC GC-PCTR	Kansas Stateavg 47¢	$164.5	$166.25	+$1.75	37% 364-613 (977)
NM NM-PCTR	Kansas Stateavg 47¢	$164.5	$166.25	+$1.75	59% 3772-2596 (6368)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Kansas Stateavg 47¢	$21.15	$21.38	+$0.23	50% 1593-1619 (3212)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

TCU

Invested

$19,155.12

Value

$19.1K

PnL

-$76.53

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

BoggsFromShawshankCTR

Kansas State

Invested

$6,883.64

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$73.23

Record

12-393 (405)

Bozos14CTR

Kansas State

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$260.42

Record

9-132 (141)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR

Kansas State

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$25

Record

59%

1135-781 (1916)

purplegatto

TCU

Invested

$1,888.5

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$18.88

Record

68%

2645-1233 (3878)

Forecastication2

TCU

Invested

$600.14

Value

$594.14

PnL

-$6

Record

45%

261-317 (578)

GC-PCTR

Kansas State

Invested

$164.5

Value

$166.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

37%

364-613 (977)

NM-PCTR

Kansas State

Invested

$164.5

Value

$166.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

59%

3772-2596 (6368)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Kansas State

Invested

$21.15

Value

$21.38

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

Research grade

NeutralTCU at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

TCU

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that TCU wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.