Kansas State vs. TCU

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold TCU (87%) · TCU at 95¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 14

Kansas State6¢TCU94¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

TCU

Consensus Traders

TCU 87%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

$553.22

Smart Money Entry

88.5¢ → 94.5¢

+7% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralTCU at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

TCU

13 of 15 top traders (87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kansas State6%

TCU95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

TCU13 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares11,715

Combined PnL+$587.47

Kansas State2 traders

Total Value$8.22

Total Shares126

Combined PnL-$34.25

TCU — 87%Kansas State — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on TCU. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTCU 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedTCU 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000TCU 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	TCUavg 82¢	$3.6K	$4.1K	+$506.29	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
SU suitcase6628	TCUavg 93.9¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$17.5	64% 628-348 (976)
0X 0xfFFF6537	TCUavg 94¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$6.4	38% 53-87 (140)
dips.	TCUavg 93¢	$837	$841.5	+$4.5	47% 993-1122 (2115)
BA babybells	TCUavg 96¢	$638.4	$641.73	+$3.33	30% 208-477 (685)
38 38791873984189	TCUavg 88¢	$593.73	$630.84	+$37.11	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Kansas Stateavg 18¢	$783.8	$328.53	-$455.27	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
└ Kansas State leg	Kansas Stateavg 18¢	$720.11	$260.08	-$460.03
└ TCU leg	TCUavg 87¢	$63.69	$68.45	+$4.76
CA CandleHammerDrums	TCUavg 90.6¢	$296.4	$304.67	+$8.28	48% 526-562 (1088)
13 13897651	TCUavg 90¢	$144.45	$150.07	+$5.62	43% 1196-1570 (2766)
NO NotJump	TCUavg 50¢	$105	$107.1	+$2.1	52% 852-801 (1653)
VeryLucky888<$100	TCUavg 77¢	$85.94	$39.01	+$2.94	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
SN SnakeBall<$100	TCUavg 78¢	$32.23	$38.43	+$6.2	47% 936-1037 (1973)
TH thirdt1me<$100	TCUavg 96¢	$9.6	$9.65	+$0.05	48% 281-301 (582)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	TCUavg 95¢	$6.55	$6.52	-$0.03	46% 499-597 (1096)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Kansas Stateavg 18¢	$54.98	$5.62	-$29.65	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Kansas Stateavg 18¢	$7.2	$2.6	-$4.6	44% 87-112 (199)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

TCU

Invested

$3,615.15

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$506.29

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

suitcase6628

TCU

Invested

$2,912

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$17.5

Record

64%

628-348 (976)

0xfFFF6537

TCU

Invested

$1,203.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$6.4

Record

38%

53-87 (140)

dips.

TCU

Invested

$837

Value

$841.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

47%

993-1122 (2115)

babybells

TCU

Invested

$638.4

Value

$641.73

PnL

+$3.33

Record

30%

208-477 (685)

38791873984189

TCU

Invested

$593.73

Value

$630.84

PnL

+$37.11

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Kansas State

Invested

$783.8

Value

$328.53

PnL

-$455.27

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

Both legs:

Kansas State$720.1118¢-$460.03

TCU$63.6987¢+$4.76

CandleHammerDrums

TCU

Invested

$296.4

Value

$304.67

PnL

+$8.28

Record

48%

526-562 (1088)

13897651

TCU

Invested

$144.45

Value

$150.07

PnL

+$5.62

Record

43%

1196-1570 (2766)

NotJump

TCU

Invested

$105

Value

$107.1

PnL

+$2.1

Record

52%

852-801 (1653)

VeryLucky888<$100

TCU

Invested

$85.94

Value

$39.01

PnL

+$2.94

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

SnakeBall<$100

TCU

Invested

$32.23

Value

$38.43

PnL

+$6.2

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

thirdt1me<$100

TCU

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

281-301 (582)

omnibus-076daa<$100

TCU

Invested

$6.55

Value

$6.52

PnL

-$0.03

Record

46%

499-597 (1096)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Kansas State

Invested

$54.98

Value

$5.62

PnL

-$29.65

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

efntrickCTR<$100

Kansas State

Invested

$7.2

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$4.6

Record

44%

87-112 (199)

Research grade

NeutralTCU at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

TCU

13 of 15 top traders (87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on TCU. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTCU 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedTCU 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000TCU 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that TCU wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.