Kansas State vs. Colorado: O/U 47.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 93¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 100%
$9.1K
$2.6K
54.8¢ → 93¢
+70% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lightotunnel35 | Underavg 57.6¢ | $3.3K | $5.0K | +$872.34 | 55% 60-49 (109) |
0X 0x0A77exmm | Underavg 50¢ | $1.3K | $2.2K | +$950 | 54% 2305-1991 (4296) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 52¢ | $1.0K | $1.8K | +$720 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Underavg 72.7¢ | $58.93 | $71.29 | +$12.36 | 53% 10788-9397 (20185) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $31.2 | $42.29 | +$0.3 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $19.24 | $26.08 | +$6.84 | 50% 7036-7035 (14071) |
Invested
$3,273.07
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$872.34
Record
55%
60-49 (109)
Invested
$1,250
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$950
Record
54%
2305-1991 (4296)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,040
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$720
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$58.93
Value
$71.29
PnL
+$12.36
Record
53%
10788-9397 (20185)
Invested
$31.2
Value
$42.29
PnL
+$0.3
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Invested
$19.24
Value
$26.08
PnL
+$6.84
Record
50%
7036-7035 (14071)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.