Spread: Colorado (-5.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Kansas State (50%) · Kansas State at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31

Colorado41¢Kansas State59¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kansas State

Consensus Traders

Kansas State 50%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$27.78

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 59¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralKansas State at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kansas State

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Colorado41%

Kansas State59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kansas State2 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares5,626

Combined PnL-$27.83

Colorado2 traders

Total Value$13.68

Total Shares34

Combined PnL+$0.05

Kansas State — 50%Colorado — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Kansas Stateavg 60¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	-$27.83	55% 60-49 (109)
GH ghorrock<$100	Kansas Stateavg 59¢	$34.75	$34.75	+$0	57% 13809-10582 (24391)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Coloradoavg 40¢	$11.57	$11.57	+$0	54% 2988-2575 (5563)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Coloradoavg 40¢	$2.07	$2.12	+$0.05	58% 28707-21186 (49893)

lightotunnel35

Kansas State

Invested

$3,340.08

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$27.83

Record

55%

60-49 (109)

ghorrock<$100

Kansas State

Invested

$34.75

Value

$34.75

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

13809-10582 (24391)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Colorado

Invested

$11.57

Value

$11.57

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

2988-2575 (5563)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Colorado

Invested

$2.07

Value

$2.12

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

Research grade

NeutralKansas State at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kansas State

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kansas State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.