Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Colorado, while the market favors Kansas State (86%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Colorado (-2.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Colorado (57%) · Colorado at 14¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Colorado
7
Colorado 57%
$1.1K
$81.85
56.1¢ → 14¢
-75% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidColorado at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Kansas State 86%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OD OddstormCTR | Coloradoavg 52¢ | $287.03 | $298.07 | +$8.28 | 39% 426-672 (1098) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Coloradoavg 54¢ | $296.46 | $296.46 | +$0 | 50% 7036-7035 (14071) |
SU SunflowaRebuildYear | Kansas Stateavg 38¢ | $190 | $242.5 | +$52.5 | 47% 331-377 (708) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Coloradoavg 72.6¢ | $115.76 | $134.83 | +$19.07 | 53% 10788-9397 (20185) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Kansas Stateavg 47.6¢ | $48.54 | $46.92 | -$1.62 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Coloradoavg 81¢ | $38.04 | $42.1 | +$4.06 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
 noosh3<$100 | Kansas Stateavg 47¢ | $41.6 | $40.71 | -$0.44 | 52% 271-247 (518) |
Invested
$287.03
Value
$298.07
PnL
+$8.28
Record
39%
426-672 (1098)
Invested
$296.46
Value
$296.46
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7036-7035 (14071)
Invested
$190
Value
$242.5
PnL
+$52.5
Record
47%
331-377 (708)
Invested
$115.76
Value
$134.83
PnL
+$19.07
Record
53%
10788-9397 (20185)
Invested
$48.54
Value
$46.92
PnL
-$1.62
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Invested
$38.04
Value
$42.1
PnL
+$4.06
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
noosh3<$100Invested
$41.6
Value
$40.71
PnL
-$0.44
Record
52%
271-247 (518)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.