Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kansas State, while the market favors Colorado (57%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Kansas State vs. Colorado

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Kansas State (82%) · Kansas State at 43¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 31

Kansas State43¢Colorado57¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kansas State

Consensus Traders

Kansas State 82%

Total Value

$14.5K

Combined PnL

$556.43

Smart Money Entry

43.1¢ → 42.5¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralKansas State at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kansas State

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Colorado 57%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kansas State43%

Colorado57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colorado2 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares9,511

Combined PnL+$51.76

Kansas State9 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares20,124

Combined PnL+$504.67

Colorado — 18%Kansas State — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Coloradoavg 57¢	$5.3K	$5.4K	+$46.65	53% 910-800 (1710)
HI hi774cCTR	Kansas Stateavg 43¢	$3.8K	$4.1K	+$260.69	52% 4715-4427 (9142)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Kansas Stateavg 43.2¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$138.41	54% 17123-14335 (31458)
VeryLucky888CTR	Kansas Stateavg 43¢	$2.1K	$1.3K	+$77.81	58% 41515-30150 (71665)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Kansas Stateavg 43¢	$727.7	$736.16	+$8.46	54% 3325-2874 (6199)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Kansas Stateavg 43¢	$306.59	$327.98	+$21.39	45% 670-829 (1499)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Kansas Stateavg 43¢	$267.46	$264.35	-$3.11	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
38 38791873984189	Coloradoavg 54.7¢	$99	$104.11	+$5.11	46% 8006-9466 (17472)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Kansas Stateavg 43¢	$51.6	$52.2	+$0.6	58% 28428-20989 (49417)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Kansas Stateavg 43¢	$49.02	$49.59	+$0.57	54% 2976-2554 (5530)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Kansas Stateavg 44¢	$14.12	$13.96	-$0.16	57% 13655-10447 (24102)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Colorado

Invested

$5,318.31

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$46.65

Record

53%

910-800 (1710)

hi774cCTR

Kansas State

Invested

$3,803.01

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$260.69

Record

52%

4715-4427 (9142)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Kansas State

Invested

$2,126.12

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$138.41

Record

54%

17123-14335 (31458)

VeryLucky888CTR

Kansas State

Invested

$2,124.11

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$77.81

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

HerdoniaCTR

Kansas State

Invested

$727.7

Value

$736.16

PnL

+$8.46

Record

54%

3325-2874 (6199)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Kansas State

Invested

$306.59

Value

$327.98

PnL

+$21.39

Record

45%

670-829 (1499)

UpTheBluesCTR

Kansas State

Invested

$267.46

Value

$264.35

PnL

-$3.11

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

38791873984189

Colorado

Invested

$99

Value

$104.11

PnL

+$5.11

Record

46%

8006-9466 (17472)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Kansas State

Invested

$51.6

Value

$52.2

PnL

+$0.6

Record

58%

28428-20989 (49417)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Kansas State

Invested

$49.02

Value

$49.59

PnL

+$0.57

Record

54%

2976-2554 (5530)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Kansas State

Invested

$14.12

Value

$13.96

PnL

-$0.16

Record

57%

13655-10447 (24102)

Research grade

NeutralKansas State at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kansas State

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Colorado 57%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kansas State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.