Spread: West Virginia (-4.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Kansas (64%) · Kansas at 59¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 14

West Virginia42¢Kansas58¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kansas

Consensus Traders

Kansas 64%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$7.72

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 58.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralKansas at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kansas

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

West Virginia42%

Kansas59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

West Virginia4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares7,578

Combined PnL-$28.46

Kansas7 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,353

Combined PnL+$36.19

West Virginia — 36%Kansas — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Kansas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKansas 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedKansas 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kansas 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	West Virginiaavg 42¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$34.44	59% 931-653 (1584)
HO HomeRunHazard	Kansasavg 58¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$22.77	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
VeryLucky888	Kansasavg 57.7¢	$834.98	$846.69	+$11.71	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
38 38791873984189CTR	West Virginiaavg 41¢	$1.2K	$234.61	+$7.59	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Kansasavg 58¢	$94.54	$95.35	+$0.81	48% 286-306 (592)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	West Virginiaavg 43¢	$46.01	$44.41	-$1.6	47% 99-111 (210)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Kansasavg 58¢	$43.5	$43.88	+$0.38	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Kansasavg 58¢	$33.35	$33.64	+$0.29	43% 180-241 (421)
PA Pan9X<$100	Kansasavg 58¢	$26.1	$26.33	+$0.22	50% 1587-1614 (3201)
GH ghorrock<$100	Kansasavg 58¢	$10.08	$10.08	+$0	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	West Virginiaavg 41¢	$9.78	$9.78	+$0	50% 3804-3775 (7579)

primmCTR

West Virginia

Invested

$2,893.34

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$34.44

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

HomeRunHazard

Kansas

Invested

$2,641.76

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$22.77

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

VeryLucky888

Kansas

Invested

$834.98

Value

$846.69

PnL

+$11.71

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

38791873984189CTR

West Virginia

Invested

$1,174.4

Value

$234.61

PnL

+$7.59

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Kansas

Invested

$94.54

Value

$95.35

PnL

+$0.81

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

West Virginia

Invested

$46.01

Value

$44.41

PnL

-$1.6

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

ferdinand2<$100

Kansas

Invested

$43.5

Value

$43.88

PnL

+$0.38

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

NatoAlfista<$100

Kansas

Invested

$33.35

Value

$33.64

PnL

+$0.29

Record

43%

180-241 (421)

Pan9X<$100

Kansas

Invested

$26.1

Value

$26.33

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

ghorrock<$100

Kansas

Invested

$10.08

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

West Virginia

Invested

$9.78

Value

$9.78

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3804-3775 (7579)

Research grade

NeutralKansas at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kansas

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Kansas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKansas 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedKansas 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kansas 60% · 10

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kansas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.