Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold West Virginia, while the market favors Kansas (100%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: West Virginia (-3.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold West Virginia (40%) · West Virginia at 0.4¢ · $999 held · ended Nov 14

West Virginia<1¢Kansas>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

West Virginia

Consensus Traders

West Virginia 40%

Total Value

$999.23

Combined PnL

-$18.6

Smart Money Entry

43.4¢ → 0.4¢

-99% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidWest Virginia at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

West Virginia

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Kansas 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

West Virginia0%

Kansas100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

West Virginia4 traders

Total Value$583.13

Total Shares1,381

Combined PnL-$18.08

Kansas6 traders

Total Value$416.1

Total Shares710

Combined PnL-$0.52

West Virginia — 40%Kansas — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on West Virginia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWest Virginia 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000West Virginia 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	West Virginiaavg 44¢	$322.85	$308.17	-$14.67	59% 948-662 (1610)
AU Aurelius7	Kansasavg 58¢	$200	$196.55	-$3.45	3% 4-139 (143)
FO forecastication4CTR	West Virginiaavg 42¢	$144.83	$144.83	+$0	34% 173-339 (512)
38 38791873984189CTR	West Virginiaavg 43.3¢	$213.71	$119.62	-$2.65	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Kansasavg 56¢	$93.24	$94.91	+$1.67	43% 190-253 (443)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Kansasavg 56¢	$69.82	$71.06	+$1.25	61% 1050-661 (1711)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Kansasavg 56¢	$30.18	$30.63	+$0.45	56% 3699-2861 (6560)
PA Pan9X<$100	Kansasavg 98.8¢	$21.79	$21.95	+$0.17	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	West Virginiaavg 45¢	$11.27	$10.52	-$0.75	50% 114-116 (230)
GA Gaditima<$100	Kansasavg 93¢	$1.6	$1	-$0.6	48% 289-310 (599)

primmCTR

West Virginia

Invested

$322.85

Value

$308.17

PnL

-$14.67

Record

59%

948-662 (1610)

Aurelius7

Kansas

Invested

$200

Value

$196.55

PnL

-$3.45

Record

4-139 (143)

forecastication4CTR

West Virginia

Invested

$144.83

Value

$144.83

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

173-339 (512)

38791873984189CTR

West Virginia

Invested

$213.71

Value

$119.62

PnL

-$2.65

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

NatoAlfista<$100

Kansas

Invested

$93.24

Value

$94.91

PnL

+$1.67

Record

43%

190-253 (443)

darkumbreon88<$100

Kansas

Invested

$69.82

Value

$71.06

PnL

+$1.25

Record

61%

1050-661 (1711)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Kansas

Invested

$30.18

Value

$30.63

PnL

+$0.45

Record

56%

3699-2861 (6560)

Pan9X<$100

Kansas

Invested

$21.79

Value

$21.95

PnL

+$0.17

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

West Virginia

Invested

$11.27

Value

$10.52

PnL

-$0.75

Record

50%

114-116 (230)

Gaditima<$100

Kansas

Invested

$1.6

Value

PnL

-$0.6

Record

48%

289-310 (599)

Research grade

AvoidWest Virginia at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

West Virginia

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Kansas 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on West Virginia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWest Virginia 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000West Virginia 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that West Virginia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6959.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7059.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.