Spread: West Virginia (-2.5)

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Kansas (42%) · Kansas at 51¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

West Virginia50¢Kansas50¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kansas

Consensus Traders

Kansas 42%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

-$42.35

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 50.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralKansas at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kansas

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

West Virginia50%

Kansas51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kansas5 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares7,503

Combined PnL-$32.67

West Virginia7 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares7,791

Combined PnL-$9.68

Kansas — 42%West Virginia — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Kansas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKansas 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000West Virginia 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Kansasavg 51¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$33.55	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
PR primmCTR	West Virginiaavg 49¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$0	59% 931-653 (1584)
38 38791873984189CTR	West Virginiaavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	+$5.46	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	West Virginiaavg 51¢	$420.14	$410.39	-$9.75	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
NM NM-P	Kansasavg 50¢	$175	$175	+$0	59% 3772-2596 (6368)
GC GC-P	Kansasavg 50¢	$175	$175	+$0	37% 364-613 (977)
SN SnakeBallCTR	West Virginiaavg 50¢	$105	$102.9	-$2.1	48% 912-1002 (1914)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	West Virginiaavg 51¢	$47.43	$45.57	-$1.86	48% 293-321 (614)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	West Virginiaavg 50¢	$45	$44.1	-$0.9	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
VE Venusian<$100	Kansasavg 49¢	$35.28	$36	+$0.72	37% 968-1674 (2642)
GH ghorrock<$100	Kansasavg 48.5¢	$16.5	$16.67	+$0.17	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	West Virginiaavg 51¢	$13.77	$13.23	-$0.54	54% 286-244 (530)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Kansas

Invested

$3,422.6

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$33.55

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

primmCTR

West Virginia

Invested

$1,977.63

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

38791873984189CTR

West Virginia

Invested

$1,470.61

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$5.46

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

HomeRunHazardCTR

West Virginia

Invested

$420.14

Value

$410.39

PnL

-$9.75

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

NM-P

Kansas

Invested

$175

Value

$175

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3772-2596 (6368)

GC-P

Kansas

Invested

$175

Value

$175

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

364-613 (977)

SnakeBallCTR

West Virginia

Invested

$105

Value

$102.9

PnL

-$2.1

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

West Virginia

Invested

$47.43

Value

$45.57

PnL

-$1.86

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

Pan9XCTR<$100

West Virginia

Invested

$45

Value

$44.1

PnL

-$0.9

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

Venusian<$100

Kansas

Invested

$35.28

Value

$36

PnL

+$0.72

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

ghorrock<$100

Kansas

Invested

$16.5

Value

$16.67

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

West Virginia

Invested

$13.77

Value

$13.23

PnL

-$0.54

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

Research grade

NeutralKansas at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kansas

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Kansas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKansas 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000West Virginia 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kansas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.