Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold West Virginia, while the market favors Kansas (73%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Kansas (-6.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold West Virginia (30%) · West Virginia at 28¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Kansas73¢West Virginia27¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

West Virginia

Consensus Traders

West Virginia 30%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$360.42

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 27.5¢

-54% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidWest Virginia at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

West Virginia

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Kansas 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kansas73%

West Virginia28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

West Virginia3 traders

Total Value$745

Total Shares1,792

Combined PnL-$398.54

Kansas7 traders

Total Value$917.97

Total Shares2,227

Combined PnL+$38.12

West Virginia — 30%Kansas — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on West Virginia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKansas 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000West Virginia 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CM cm2897CTR	West Virginiaavg 49.8¢	$517.5	$373.78	-$143.72	49% 1168-1203 (2371)
38 38791873984189CTR	West Virginiaavg 73¢	$774.01	$364.21	-$254.47	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Kansasavg 50¢	$220.68	$225.09	+$4.41	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
MA MadridTime	Kansasavg 27¢	$179.19	$202.42	+$23.23	38% 1060-1756 (2816)
RN1	Kansasavg 50¢	$178.96	$182.54	+$3.58	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
VE Venusian	Kansasavg 27¢	$120.51	$136.13	+$15.62	37% 1035-1784 (2819)
PA Pan9X	Kansasavg 54.5¢	$167.78	$118.56	-$11.72	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
PR primm<$100	Kansasavg 58¢	$31.22	$31.76	+$0.54	59% 932-653 (1585)
LI Limousin<$100	Kansasavg 27¢	$19	$21.46	+$2.46	37% 1030-1762 (2792)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	West Virginiaavg 73¢	$7.36	$7.01	-$0.35	53% 1854-1648 (3502)

cm2897CTR

West Virginia

Invested

$517.5

Value

$373.78

PnL

-$143.72

Record

49%

1168-1203 (2371)

38791873984189CTR

West Virginia

Invested

$774.01

Value

$364.21

PnL

-$254.47

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Kansas

Invested

$220.68

Value

$225.09

PnL

+$4.41

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

MadridTime

Kansas

Invested

$179.19

Value

$202.42

PnL

+$23.23

Record

38%

1060-1756 (2816)

RN1

Kansas

Invested

$178.96

Value

$182.54

PnL

+$3.58

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

Venusian

Kansas

Invested

$120.51

Value

$136.13

PnL

+$15.62

Record

37%

1035-1784 (2819)

Pan9X

Kansas

Invested

$167.78

Value

$118.56

PnL

-$11.72

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

primm<$100

Kansas

Invested

$31.22

Value

$31.76

PnL

+$0.54

Record

59%

932-653 (1585)

Limousin<$100

Kansas

Invested

$19

Value

$21.46

PnL

+$2.46

Record

37%

1030-1762 (2792)

ghorrockCTR<$100

West Virginia

Invested

$7.36

Value

$7.01

PnL

-$0.35

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

Research grade

AvoidWest Virginia at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

West Virginia

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Kansas 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on West Virginia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKansas 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000West Virginia 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that West Virginia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.