Spread: Kansas (-2.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold West Virginia (56%) · West Virginia at 60¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

Kansas41¢West Virginia59¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

West Virginia

Consensus Traders

West Virginia 56%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$1.9

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 59.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralWest Virginia at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

West Virginia

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kansas41%

West Virginia60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

West Virginia5 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares6,379

Combined PnL-$48.16

Kansas4 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares6,621

Combined PnL+$50.06

West Virginia — 56%Kansas — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on West Virginia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWest Virginia 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000West Virginia 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	West Virginiaavg 60.4¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$33.71	48% 3222-3520 (6742)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Kansasavg 40¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$21.39	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
FO forecastication4	West Virginiaavg 60¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$13.18	33% 168-336 (504)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Kansasavg 39¢	$478.34	$496.73	+$18.4	37% 964-1664 (2628)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Kansasavg 39.7¢	$394.15	$402.59	+$8.44	37% 972-1637 (2609)
PA Pan9X<$100	West Virginiaavg 61¢	$54.9	$53.55	-$1.35	50% 1593-1618 (3211)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Kansasavg 39¢	$47.7	$49.53	+$1.83	36% 953-1669 (2622)
GH ghorrock<$100	West Virginiaavg 60¢	$6.05	$6	-$0.05	52% 1734-1576 (3310)
PR primm<$100	West Virginiaavg 58¢	$4.99	$5.11	+$0.13	59% 931-653 (1584)

38791873984189

West Virginia

Invested

$2,195.5

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$33.71

Record

48%

3222-3520 (6742)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Kansas

Invested

$1,711.4

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$21.39

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

forecastication4

West Virginia

Invested

$1,581.97

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$13.18

Record

33%

168-336 (504)

LightParadoxCTR

Kansas

Invested

$478.34

Value

$496.73

PnL

+$18.4

Record

37%

964-1664 (2628)

MadridTimeCTR

Kansas

Invested

$394.15

Value

$402.59

PnL

+$8.44

Record

37%

972-1637 (2609)

Pan9X<$100

West Virginia

Invested

$54.9

Value

$53.55

PnL

-$1.35

Record

50%

1593-1618 (3211)

VenusianCTR<$100

Kansas

Invested

$47.7

Value

$49.53

PnL

+$1.83

Record

36%

953-1669 (2622)

ghorrock<$100

West Virginia

Invested

$6.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

1734-1576 (3310)

primm<$100

West Virginia

Invested

$4.99

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$0.13

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

Research grade

NeutralWest Virginia at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

West Virginia

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on West Virginia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrWest Virginia 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000West Virginia 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that West Virginia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.