Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kansas, while the market favors TCU (51%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: TCU (-6.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kansas (80%) · Kansas at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Kansas
5
Kansas 80%
$2.4K
-$35.6
50.8¢ → 49.5¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralKansas at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors TCU 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Kansasavg 51.5¢ | $941.26 | $913 | -$19.13 | 58% 41528-30164 (71692) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Kansasavg 50¢ | $623.5 | $864.77 | -$18.73 | 46% 8032-9481 (17513) |
 PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN | TCUavg 50¢ | $465 | $469.65 | +$4.65 | 53% 910-800 (1710) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Kansasavg 51.1¢ | $89.86 | $87.12 | -$2.74 | 58% 28432-20995 (49427) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Kansasavg 50¢ | $35 | $35 | +$0.35 | 52% 374-341 (715) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$941.26
Value
$913
PnL
-$19.13
Record
58%
41528-30164 (71692)
Invested
$623.5
Value
$864.77
PnL
-$18.73
Record
46%
8032-9481 (17513)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANInvested
$465
Value
$469.65
PnL
+$4.65
Record
53%
910-800 (1710)
Invested
$89.86
Value
$87.12
PnL
-$2.74
Record
58%
28432-20995 (49427)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$35
Value
$35
PnL
+$0.35
Record
52%
374-341 (715)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.