Spread: TCU (-5.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kansas (100%) · Kansas at 92¢ · $214 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Kansas
5
Kansas 100%
$214.41
$13.4
50.7¢ → 92¢
+81% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralKansas at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Kansasavg 47.6¢ | $83.23 | $89.25 | +$6.02 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Kansasavg 58¢ | $45.82 | $51.75 | +$5.93 | 53% 10788-9397 (20185) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Kansasavg 56¢ | $24.26 | $38.99 | +$0.65 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Kansasavg 47¢ | $25.25 | $25.25 | +$0.27 | 39% 426-672 (1098) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Kansasavg 48¢ | $8.64 | $9.18 | +$0.54 | 54% 2996-2576 (5572) |
Invested
$83.23
Value
$89.25
PnL
+$6.02
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Invested
$45.82
Value
$51.75
PnL
+$5.93
Record
53%
10788-9397 (20185)
Invested
$24.26
Value
$38.99
PnL
+$0.65
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Invested
$25.25
Value
$25.25
PnL
+$0.27
Record
39%
426-672 (1098)
Invested
$8.64
Value
$9.18
PnL
+$0.54
Record
54%
2996-2576 (5572)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.