Kansas vs. TCU

11 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Kansas (61%) · Kansas at 78¢ · $43K held · ended Oct 31

Kansas78¢TCU22¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kansas

Consensus Traders

Kansas 61%

Total Value

$43.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

60.5¢ → 77.5¢

+28% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralKansas at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kansas

11 of 18 top traders (61%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kansas78%

TCU23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kansas11 traders

Total Value$33.2K

Total Shares44,967

Combined PnL+$2.8K

TCU7 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares21,839

Combined PnL$-4.5K

Kansas — 61%TCU — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Kansasavg 71.9¢	$17.6K	$17.7K	+$135.92	54% 1228-1034 (2262)
PU purplegattoCTR	TCUavg 68¢	$12.6K	$8.1K	$-4.6K	50% 5881-5972 (11853)
LU LuckyLoo	Kansasavg 32¢	$3.1K	$7.2K	+$2.4K	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
RN1	Kansasavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$15.49	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Kansasavg 61.7¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$75.02	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
VeryLucky888	Kansasavg 32¢	$636.85	$1.5K	+$199.02	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
ET ethanaz	Kansasavg 73¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$14.07	52% 669-624 (1293)
TO torta.techCTR	TCUavg 65¢	$842.4	$848.88	+$6.48	63% 8137-4876 (13013)
JU justaluckydude	Kansasavg 54¢	$705.18	$791.04	+$85.86	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
BI BillBenter2026	Kansasavg 62.7¢	$528.07	$633.33	+$105.26	58% 18675-13734 (32409)
0X 0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761dCTR	TCUavg 51¢	$588.46	$606.18	+$17.72	51% 136-130 (266)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	TCUavg 67¢	$512.55	$516.38	+$3.83	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
PR primm	Kansasavg 78¢	$375.96	$375.96	+$0	46% 1072-1263 (2335)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Kansasavg 36¢	$6.53	$14.15	+$0.63	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	TCUavg 68¢	$13.6	$13.5	-$0.1	54% 2996-2576 (5572)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	TCUavg 67¢	$6.09	$6.14	+$0.05	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
HRTradingCTR<$100	TCUavg 40¢	$7.42	$4.17	-$3.25	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
13 13897651<$100	Kansasavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.57	+$0.32	59% 6957-4888 (11845)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Kansas

Invested

$17,554.89

Value

$17.7K

PnL

+$135.92

Record

54%

1228-1034 (2262)

purplegattoCTR

TCU

Invested

$12,631.66

Value

$8.1K

PnL

$-4.6K

Record

50%

5881-5972 (11853)

LuckyLoo

Kansas

Invested

$3,144.64

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

RN1

Kansas

Invested

$2,230.04

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$15.49

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Kansas

Invested

$1,873.14

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$75.02

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

VeryLucky888

Kansas

Invested

$636.85

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$199.02

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

ethanaz

Kansas

Invested

$1,027.11

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$14.07

Record

52%

669-624 (1293)

torta.techCTR

TCU

Invested

$842.4

Value

$848.88

PnL

+$6.48

Record

63%

8137-4876 (13013)

justaluckydude

Kansas

Invested

$705.18

Value

$791.04

PnL

+$85.86

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

BillBenter2026

Kansas

Invested

$528.07

Value

$633.33

PnL

+$105.26

Record

58%

18675-13734 (32409)

0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761dCTR

TCU

Invested

$588.46

Value

$606.18

PnL

+$17.72

Record

51%

136-130 (266)

HomeRunHazardCTR

TCU

Invested

$512.55

Value

$516.38

PnL

+$3.83

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

primm

Kansas

Invested

$375.96

Value

$375.96

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

1072-1263 (2335)

topdogbigboi<$100

Kansas

Invested

$6.53

Value

$14.15

PnL

+$0.63

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

TCU

Invested

$13.6

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

2996-2576 (5572)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

TCU

Invested

$6.09

Value

$6.14

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

HRTradingCTR<$100

TCU

Invested

$7.42

Value

$4.17

PnL

-$3.25

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

13897651<$100

Kansas

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.57

PnL

+$0.32

Record

59%

6957-4888 (11845)

Research grade

NeutralKansas at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kansas

11 of 18 top traders (61%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kansas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.