James Madison vs. UConn: O/U 57.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (42%) · Under at 55¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 14

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 42%

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$159.57

Smart Money Entry

53.2¢ → 54.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares14,557

Combined PnL+$183.47

Over7 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,964

Combined PnL-$23.9

Under — 42%Over — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Underavg 53.4¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$76.42	20% 15-59 (74)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 52.8¢	$4.5K	$3.8K	+$97.94	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 47¢	$940	$930	-$10	54% 496-419 (915)
nigiri99	Underavg 54¢	$608.58	$614.22	+$5.64	51% 568-535 (1103)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 46¢	$593.84	$587.39	-$6.45	47% 895-994 (1889)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 46¢	$502.32	$507.78	+$5.46	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 47¢	$470	$460	-$10	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 46¢	$156.59	$154.89	-$1.7	22% 179-618 (797)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 53¢	$107.38	$110.42	+$3.04	46% 492-580 (1072)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$72.68	$71.89	-$0.79	37% 353-603 (956)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Underavg 54¢	$47.68	$48.13	+$0.44	25% 341-1019 (1360)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$38.1	$37.69	-$0.41	36% 933-1644 (2577)

lightotunnel35

Under

Invested

$3,815.84

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$76.42

Record

20%

15-59 (74)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$4,469.94

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$97.94

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$940

Value

$930

PnL

-$10

Record

54%

496-419 (915)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$608.58

Value

$614.22

PnL

+$5.64

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$593.84

Value

$587.39

PnL

-$6.45

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$502.32

Value

$507.78

PnL

+$5.46

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$470

Value

$460

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$156.59

Value

$154.89

PnL

-$1.7

Record

22%

179-618 (797)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$107.38

Value

$110.42

PnL

+$3.04

Record

46%

492-580 (1072)

GC-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$72.68

Value

$71.89

PnL

-$0.79

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Under

Invested

$47.68

Value

$48.13

PnL

+$0.44

Record

25%

341-1019 (1360)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$38.1

Value

$37.69

PnL

-$0.41

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.