James Madison vs. UConn: O/U 55.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 55¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 83%
$7.0K
$2.01
55¢ → 55¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 55¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | +$0.55 | 57% 3430-2600 (6030) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 55¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0 | 52% 718-671 (1389) |
PL pltrkr111 | Overavg 55¢ | $1,000 | $1,000 | +$0 | 3% 18-523 (541) |
HI hi774c | Overavg 55¢ | $754.6 | $754.6 | -$0 | 19% 121-526 (647) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $63.9 | $65.35 | +$1.45 | 48% 1999-2208 (4207) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $48.95 | $48.95 | +$0 | 55% 197-161 (358) |
Invested
$4,004.26
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$0.55
Record
57%
3430-2600 (6030)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,100
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
718-671 (1389)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1,000
PnL
+$0
Record
3%
18-523 (541)
Invested
$754.6
Value
$754.6
PnL
-$0
Record
19%
121-526 (647)
Invested
$63.9
Value
$65.35
PnL
+$1.45
Record
48%
1999-2208 (4207)
Invested
$48.95
Value
$48.95
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
197-161 (358)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.