Spread: James Madison (-5.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold UConn (75%) · UConn at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

James Madison48¢UConn52¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UConn

Consensus Traders

UConn 75%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$81.71

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 52.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUConn at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UConn

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

James Madison48%

UConn53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UConn6 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares7,855

Combined PnL-$82.73

James Madison2 traders

Total Value$98.95

Total Shares204

Combined PnL+$1.02

UConn — 75%James Madison — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on UConn. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUConn 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUConn 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000UConn 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	UConnavg 53¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$44.41	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
PL pltrkr111	UConnavg 53¢	$1,000	$981.84	-$18.16	4% 23-537 (560)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	UConnavg 52¢	$628.4	$622.36	-$6.04	50% 2506-2466 (4972)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	James Madisonavg 48¢	$84	$84.88	+$0.88	37% 353-603 (956)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	UConnavg 53¢	$64.13	$62.92	-$1.21	54% 286-244 (530)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	James Madisonavg 48¢	$13.93	$14.08	+$0.15	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
GH ghorrock<$100	UConnavg 53¢	$8.63	$8.58	-$0.05	52% 1712-1564 (3276)
VeryLucky888	UConnavg 53¢	$679.99	$2.85	-$12.86	53% 1340-1169 (2509)

HomeRunHazard

UConn

Invested

$2,500.66

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$44.41

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

pltrkr111

UConn

Invested

$1,000

Value

$981.84

PnL

-$18.16

Record

23-537 (560)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

UConn

Invested

$628.4

Value

$622.36

PnL

-$6.04

Record

50%

2506-2466 (4972)

GC-PCTR<$100

James Madison

Invested

$84

Value

$84.88

PnL

+$0.88

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

UConn

Invested

$64.13

Value

$62.92

PnL

-$1.21

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

NM-PCTR<$100

James Madison

Invested

$13.93

Value

$14.08

PnL

+$0.15

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

ghorrock<$100

UConn

Invested

$8.63

Value

$8.58

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

1712-1564 (3276)

VeryLucky888

UConn

Invested

$679.99

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$12.86

Record

53%

1340-1169 (2509)

Research grade

NeutralUConn at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

UConn

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

40h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on UConn. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUConn 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUConn 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000UConn 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UConn wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.