James Madison vs. UConn

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold James Madison (45%) · James Madison at 64¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 14

James Madison64¢UConn36¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

James Madison

Consensus Traders

James Madison 45%

Total Value

$17.2K

Combined PnL

$168.21

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 63.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralJames Madison at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

James Madison

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

James Madison64%

UConn37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

James Madison5 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares16,279

Combined PnL+$82.87

UConn6 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares18,338

Combined PnL+$85.34

James Madison — 45%UConn — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	James Madisonavg 64¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	+$50	54% 496-419 (915)
MA MadridTimeCTR	UConnavg 36¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	+$75.91	37% 970-1635 (2605)
65 6512395314597884	James Madisonavg 64¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$30	50% 3804-3775 (7579)
LI LimousinCTR	UConnavg 36¢	$763.78	$774.39	+$10.61	36% 933-1644 (2577)
GC GC-PCTR	UConnavg 35¢	$174.99	$177.49	+$2.5	37% 353-603 (956)
PA Pan9X	James Madisonavg 64¢	$203.54	$155.77	+$2.63	50% 1587-1614 (3201)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	UConnavg 36.3¢	$99.66	$96.08	-$3.58	47% 895-994 (1889)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	UConnavg 35¢	$87.5	$87.5	+$0	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
EF efntrick<$100	James Madisonavg 64¢	$25.6	$25.8	+$0.2	44% 86-111 (197)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	UConnavg 36¢	$3.42	$3.33	-$0.09	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	James Madisonavg 63¢	$1.89	$1.94	+$0.05	56% 3687-2847 (6534)

0xheavy888

James Madison

Invested

$6,399.99

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$50

Record

54%

496-419 (915)

MadridTimeCTR

UConn

Invested

$5,465.67

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$75.91

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

6512395314597884

James Madison

Invested

$3,840

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$30

Record

50%

3804-3775 (7579)

LimousinCTR

UConn

Invested

$763.78

Value

$774.39

PnL

+$10.61

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

GC-PCTR

UConn

Invested

$174.99

Value

$177.49

PnL

+$2.5

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

Pan9X

James Madison

Invested

$203.54

Value

$155.77

PnL

+$2.63

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

UConn

Invested

$99.66

Value

$96.08

PnL

-$3.58

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

NM-PCTR<$100

UConn

Invested

$87.5

Value

$87.5

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

efntrick<$100

James Madison

Invested

$25.6

Value

$25.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

44%

86-111 (197)

ghorrockCTR<$100

UConn

Invested

$3.42

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$0.09

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

HomeRunHazard<$100

James Madison

Invested

$1.89

Value

$1.94

PnL

+$0.05

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Research grade

NeutralJames Madison at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

James Madison

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that James Madison wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.