Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Jacksonville State (44%) · Jacksonville State at 67¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Jacksonville State67¢Western Kentucky33¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

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⚖️

Neutral

Jacksonville State

Consensus Traders

Jacksonville State 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$113.58

Smart Money Entry

70.5¢ → 66.5¢

-6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralJacksonville State at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jacksonville State

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jacksonville State67%

Western Kentucky34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jacksonville State4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,299

Combined PnL-$95.17

Western Kentucky5 traders

Total Value$856.92

Total Shares2,273

Combined PnL-$18.41

Jacksonville State — 44%Western Kentucky — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Jacksonville Stateavg 71¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$96.54	52% 2647-2473 (5120)
38 38791873984189CTR	Western Kentuckyavg 46¢	$531.73	$537.51	+$5.78	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
BA babybells	Jacksonville Stateavg 69¢	$278.87	$288.97	+$10.1	31% 211-477 (688)
0X 0xfFFF6537CTR	Western Kentuckyavg 29¢	$290	$285	-$5	38% 53-87 (140)
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Jacksonville Stateavg 66.5¢	$215.63	$225.86	+$10.23	49% 539-568 (1107)
└ Jacksonville State leg	Jacksonville Stateavg 66.5¢	$148.06	$151.3	+$3.24
└ Western Kentucky leg	Western Kentuckyavg 29¢	$67.57	$74.56	+$6.99
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Western Kentuckyavg 49.4¢	$114.2	$114.3	+$0.1	52% 883-823 (1706)
└ Western Kentucky leg	Western Kentuckyavg 49.4¢	$61.7	$58.13	-$3.58
└ Jacksonville State leg	Jacksonville Stateavg 50¢	$52.5	$56.18	+$3.68
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Jacksonville Stateavg 69¢	$100.36	$91.7	-$8.66	56% 4072-3180 (7252)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Western Kentuckyavg 46¢	$46	$28.5	-$17.5	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Jacksonville Stateavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.43	-$0.07	83% 784-160 (944)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Western Kentuckyavg 43.5¢	$3.55	$3.35	-$0.2	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
RN1CTR<$100	Western Kentuckyavg 45¢	$4.05	$2.57	-$1.48	55% 5455-4439 (9894)

CUTJALENHURTS

Jacksonville State

Invested

$1,246.29

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$96.54

Record

52%

2647-2473 (5120)

38791873984189CTR

Western Kentucky

Invested

$531.73

Value

$537.51

PnL

+$5.78

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

babybells

Jacksonville State

Invested

$278.87

Value

$288.97

PnL

+$10.1

Record

31%

211-477 (688)

0xfFFF6537CTR

Western Kentucky

Invested

$290

Value

$285

PnL

-$5

Record

38%

53-87 (140)

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Jacksonville State

Invested

$215.63

Value

$225.86

PnL

+$10.23

Record

49%

539-568 (1107)

Both legs:

Jacksonville State$148.0666.5¢+$3.24

Western Kentucky$67.5729¢+$6.99

NotJumpARB<$100

Western Kentucky

Invested

$114.2

Value

$114.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

883-823 (1706)

Both legs:

Western Kentucky$61.749.4¢-$3.58

Jacksonville State$52.550¢+$3.68

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Jacksonville State

Invested

$100.36

Value

$91.7

PnL

-$8.66

Record

56%

4072-3180 (7252)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Western Kentucky

Invested

$46

Value

$28.5

PnL

-$17.5

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Jacksonville State

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.43

PnL

-$0.07

Record

83%

784-160 (944)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Western Kentucky

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

RN1CTR<$100

Western Kentucky

Invested

$4.05

Value

$2.57

PnL

-$1.48

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

Research grade

NeutralJacksonville State at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jacksonville State

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jacksonville State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.