Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State: O/U 49.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 84¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 100%
$7.5K
$775.95
46.5¢ → 84¢
+81% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 46¢ | $3.3K | $4.9K | +$104.91 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 47.5¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | +$567.47 | 58% 40917-29601 (70518) |
FO forecastication4 | Underavg 47¢ | $440.17 | $444.85 | +$4.68 | 49% 1130-1160 (2290) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Underavg 47¢ | $94 | $139 | +$45 | 54% 4814-4045 (8859) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks | Underavg 48¢ | $78.24 | $118.18 | +$39.94 | 54% 2922-2511 (5433) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $29.14 | $43.09 | +$13.95 | 50% 3721-3695 (7416) |
Invested
$3,264.89
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$104.91
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,900
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$567.47
Record
58%
40917-29601 (70518)
Invested
$440.17
Value
$444.85
PnL
+$4.68
Record
49%
1130-1160 (2290)
Invested
$94
Value
$139
PnL
+$45
Record
54%
4814-4045 (8859)
Invested
$78.24
Value
$118.18
PnL
+$39.94
Record
54%
2922-2511 (5433)
Invested
$29.14
Value
$43.09
PnL
+$13.95
Record
50%
3721-3695 (7416)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.