Spread: Jacksonville State (-7.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Jacksonville State (63%) · Jacksonville State at 80¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 29

Jacksonville State80¢New Mexico State20¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jacksonville State

Consensus Traders

Jacksonville State 63%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

-$19.6

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 80¢

+40% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralJacksonville State at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jacksonville State

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jacksonville State80%

New Mexico State20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

New Mexico State3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,102

Combined PnL-$18.82

Jacksonville State5 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,412

Combined PnL-$0.78

New Mexico State — 38%Jacksonville State — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	New Mexico Stateavg 54¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$20.2	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
TO torta.tech	Jacksonville Stateavg 46¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$19.02	63% 7985-4775 (12760)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Jacksonville Stateavg 82¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$170	54% 1175-997 (2172)
RN1CTR	New Mexico Stateavg 52¢	$572.33	$534.92	-$37.41	54% 55844-47942 (103786)
JU justaluckydude	Jacksonville Stateavg 46.2¢	$233.02	$423.25	+$190.23	54% 10476-9103 (19579)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Jacksonville Stateavg 45¢	$38.16	$38.16	+$0	50% 3721-3695 (7416)
RL RLWG<$100	Jacksonville Stateavg 45.5¢	$9.1	$7.1	-$2	50% 7706-7712 (15418)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	New Mexico Stateavg 36¢	$2.47	$0.86	-$1.61	57% 13241-10089 (23330)

HomeRunHazardCTR

New Mexico State

Invested

$2,178.54

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$20.2

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

torta.tech

Jacksonville State

Invested

$1,749.38

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$19.02

Record

63%

7985-4775 (12760)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Jacksonville State

Invested

$1,640

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$170

Record

54%

1175-997 (2172)

RN1CTR

New Mexico State

Invested

$572.33

Value

$534.92

PnL

-$37.41

Record

54%

55844-47942 (103786)

justaluckydude

Jacksonville State

Invested

$233.02

Value

$423.25

PnL

+$190.23

Record

54%

10476-9103 (19579)

NatoAlfista<$100

Jacksonville State

Invested

$38.16

Value

$38.16

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3721-3695 (7416)

RLWG<$100

Jacksonville State

Invested

$9.1

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

7706-7712 (15418)

ghorrockCTR<$100

New Mexico State

Invested

$2.47

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$1.61

Record

57%

13241-10089 (23330)

Research grade

NeutralJacksonville State at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jacksonville State

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jacksonville State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.