Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold New Mexico State, while the market favors Jacksonville State (60%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Jacksonville State (-6.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold New Mexico State (60%) · New Mexico State at 41¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
New Mexico State
5
New Mexico State 60%
$4.9K
-$51.65
61.9¢ → 40.5¢
-35% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNew Mexico State at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Jacksonville State 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME metski29CTR | New Mexico Stateavg 62.4¢ | $3.3K | $3.1K | -$175.84 | 45% 299-371 (670) |
FO forecastication4 | Jacksonville Stateavg 37¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$122.74 | 49% 1130-1160 (2290) |
PU purplegattoCTR | New Mexico Stateavg 60¢ | $489 | $480.85 | -$8.15 | 50% 5779-5888 (11667) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | New Mexico Stateavg 53.2¢ | $75.68 | $83.96 | +$8.28 | 54% 10476-9103 (19579) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Jacksonville Stateavg 39¢ | $25.74 | $27.06 | +$1.32 | 50% 6821-6834 (13655) |
Invested
$3,250
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$175.84
Record
45%
299-371 (670)
Invested
$1,135.32
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$122.74
Record
49%
1130-1160 (2290)
Invested
$489
Value
$480.85
PnL
-$8.15
Record
50%
5779-5888 (11667)
Invested
$75.68
Value
$83.96
PnL
+$8.28
Record
54%
10476-9103 (19579)
Invested
$25.74
Value
$27.06
PnL
+$1.32
Record
50%
6821-6834 (13655)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.