Spread: Jacksonville State (-3.5)
2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold New Mexico State (20%) · New Mexico State at 55¢ · $64K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
New Mexico State
10
New Mexico State 20%
$64.3K
$-1.3K
54¢ → 54.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNew Mexico State at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KC Kch-Temp | New Mexico Stateavg 54¢ | $40.7K | $39.5K | $-1.1K | 50% 206-204 (410) |
MO mooseborzoiiCTR | Jacksonville Stateavg 46¢ | $12.2K | $12.1K | -$132.83 | 50% 1138-1132 (2270) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Jacksonville Stateavg 45.7¢ | $6.6K | $6.6K | -$27.02 | 54% 16864-14141 (31005) |
HI hi774cCTR | Jacksonville Stateavg 45.9¢ | $4.6K | $4.6K | -$41.99 | 52% 4656-4364 (9020) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Jacksonville Stateavg 46¢ | $460 | $455 | -$5 | 58% 40752-29469 (70221) |
FO forecastication4CTR | Jacksonville Stateavg 45¢ | $391.25 | $412.98 | +$21.74 | 49% 1127-1156 (2283) |
MA manoamano | New Mexico Stateavg 55¢ | $296.17 | $293.48 | -$2.69 | 51% 440-423 (863) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Jacksonville Stateavg 46¢ | $273.24 | $270.27 | -$2.97 | 59% 44606-31003 (75609) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Jacksonville Stateavg 46¢ | $46 | $46.5 | +$0.5 | 50% 12108-12317 (24425) |
MA MarkramCTR<$100 | Jacksonville Stateavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.38 | +$0.08 | 70% 2052-888 (2940) |
Invested
$40,672.54
Value
$39.5K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
50%
206-204 (410)
Invested
$12,219.98
Value
$12.1K
PnL
-$132.83
Record
50%
1138-1132 (2270)
Invested
$6,649.4
Value
$6.6K
PnL
-$27.02
Record
54%
16864-14141 (31005)
Invested
$4,631.43
Value
$4.6K
PnL
-$41.99
Record
52%
4656-4364 (9020)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$460
Value
$455
PnL
-$5
Record
58%
40752-29469 (70221)
Invested
$391.25
Value
$412.98
PnL
+$21.74
Record
49%
1127-1156 (2283)
Invested
$296.17
Value
$293.48
PnL
-$2.69
Record
51%
440-423 (863)
Invested
$273.24
Value
$270.27
PnL
-$2.97
Record
59%
44606-31003 (75609)
Invested
$46
Value
$46.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
50%
12108-12317 (24425)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.38
PnL
+$0.08
Record
70%
2052-888 (2940)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Kch-Temp
New Mexico State — $39.5K
mooseborzoii
CTRJacksonville State — $12.1K
HomeRunHazard
CTRJacksonville State — $6.6K
hi774c
CTRJacksonville State — $4.6K
VeryLucky888
CTRJacksonville State — $455
forecastication4
CTRJacksonville State — $412.98
manoamano
New Mexico State — $293.48
UpTheBlues
CTRJacksonville State — $270.27
LuckyLoo
CTRJacksonville State — $46.5
Markram
CTRJacksonville State — $2.38