Lindenwood vs. Tennessee-Martin

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Lindenwood (25%) · Lindenwood at 75¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 14

Lindenwood75¢Tennessee-Martin25¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lindenwood

Consensus Traders

Lindenwood 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.9K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 75¢

+33% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralLindenwood at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lindenwood

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lindenwood75%

Tennessee-Martin25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lindenwood2 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares15,499

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Tennessee-Martin6 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares15,071

Combined PnL-$476.54

Lindenwood — 25%Tennessee-Martin — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Lindenwood. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLindenwood 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTennessee-Martin 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Tennessee-Martin 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Lindenwoodavg 56.7¢	$8.6K	$10.5K	+$1.9K	52% 573-538 (1111)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Tennessee-Martinavg 43¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$0	48% 34-37 (71)
GA gagarin59CTR	Tennessee-Martinavg 44¢	$1.0K	$977.39	-$22.73	42% 64-89 (153)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Tennessee-Martinavg 44¢	$913.33	$462.19	-$451.15	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
OM omnibus-076daa	Lindenwoodavg 51.1¢	$157.77	$212.86	+$55.09	45% 509-610 (1119)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Tennessee-Martinavg 50¢	$105	$117.6	+$12.6	52% 883-823 (1706)
└ Lindenwood leg	Lindenwoodavg 50¢	$52.5	$72.45	+$19.95
└ Tennessee-Martin leg	Tennessee-Martinavg 50¢	$52.5	$45.15	-$7.35
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Tennessee-Martinavg 44¢	$66	$64.5	-$1.5	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Tennessee-Martinavg 44¢	$44	$43	-$1	49% 539-568 (1107)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Tennessee-Martinavg 43.5¢	$13.66	$13.5	-$0.17	53% 1854-1648 (3502)

nigiri99

Lindenwood

Invested

$8,612.32

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

52%

573-538 (1111)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Tennessee-Martin

Invested

$4,522.14

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

gagarin59CTR

Tennessee-Martin

Invested

$1,000.12

Value

$977.39

PnL

-$22.73

Record

42%

64-89 (153)

6512395314597884CTR

Tennessee-Martin

Invested

$913.33

Value

$462.19

PnL

-$451.15

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

omnibus-076daa

Lindenwood

Invested

$157.77

Value

$212.86

PnL

+$55.09

Record

45%

509-610 (1119)

NotJumpARB<$100

Tennessee-Martin

Invested

$105

Value

$117.6

PnL

+$12.6

Record

52%

883-823 (1706)

Both legs:

Lindenwood$52.550¢+$19.95

Tennessee-Martin$52.550¢-$7.35

Pan9XCTR<$100

Tennessee-Martin

Invested

$66

Value

$64.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Tennessee-Martin

Invested

$44

Value

$43

PnL

-$1

Record

49%

539-568 (1107)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Tennessee-Martin

Invested

$13.66

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$0.17

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

Research grade

NeutralLindenwood at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lindenwood

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Lindenwood. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLindenwood 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTennessee-Martin 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Tennessee-Martin 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lindenwood wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.