Iowa State vs. Baylor

13 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Baylor (76%) · Baylor at 77¢ · $144K held · ended Nov 7

Iowa State23¢Baylor77¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Baylor

Consensus Traders

Baylor 76%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$143.8K

Combined PnL

$3.2K

Smart Money Entry

70.5¢ → 77¢

+9% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralBaylor at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Baylor

13 of 17 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Iowa State23%

Baylor77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Baylor13 traders

Total Value$119.8K

Total Shares150,374

Combined PnL+$9.8K

Iowa State4 traders

Total Value$19.5K

Total Shares84,675

Combined PnL$-6.7K

Baylor — 76%Iowa State — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Bayloravg 62.5¢	$22.8K	$26.4K	+$4.5K	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Bayloravg 80¢	$23.2K	$22.3K	-$869.56	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Bayloravg 67.3¢	$18.8K	$21.5K	+$2.7K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
RN1	Bayloravg 72.4¢	$19.5K	$20.9K	+$1.4K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
PR primmCTR	Iowa Stateavg 32.6¢	$22.3K	$15.8K	$-6.6K	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
CM cm2897	Bayloravg 62¢	$12.6K	$14.8K	+$2.2K	51% 2230-2185 (4415)
38 38791873984189	Bayloravg 79.4¢	$6.7K	$4.5K	+$197.37	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
OJ ojg	Bayloravg 84.7¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	-$196.97	43% 838-1096 (1934)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Bayloravg 71.9¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$15.9	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ Baylor leg	Bayloravg 71.9¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$145.7
└ Iowa State leg	Iowa Stateavg 27.7¢	$770.04	$640.24	-$129.8
wowfarm	Bayloravg 99.9¢	$3.5K	$2.7K	-$802.94	71% 4957-1990 (6947)
0X 0xfFFF6537	Bayloravg 60.2¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$512.02	49% 1142-1178 (2320)
VI vibing123CTR	Iowa Stateavg 20.5¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$206.56	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Bayloravg 72.6¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$90.23	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
└ Baylor leg	Bayloravg 72.6¢	$971.1	$1.0K	+$58.39
└ Iowa State leg	Iowa Stateavg 28.5¢	$772.38	$623.76	-$148.62
HI hi774cCTR	Iowa Stateavg 23¢	$1,000	$1,000	+$0	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Iowa Stateavg 31.3¢	$1.1K	$834.8	-$300.57	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
TA takeormake	Bayloravg 72.5¢	$654.35	$692.87	+$38.52	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
PA Pan9X	Bayloravg 74.6¢	$1.0K	$454.57	+$81.83	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
PT PT-S7	Bayloravg 49¢	$91.42	$142.8	+$52.38	49% 3284-3450 (6734)
VeryLucky888<$100	Bayloravg 76¢	$28.88	$29.26	+$0.38	58% 47904-34520 (82424)

6512395314597884

Baylor

Invested

$22,827.73

Value

$26.4K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Baylor

Invested

$23,188.23

Value

$22.3K

PnL

-$869.56

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

ferrariChampions2026

Baylor

Invested

$18,784.2

Value

$21.5K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

RN1

Baylor

Invested

$19,543.39

Value

$20.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

primmCTR

Iowa State

Invested

$22,348.78

Value

$15.8K

PnL

$-6.6K

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

cm2897

Baylor

Invested

$12,564.78

Value

$14.8K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

51%

2230-2185 (4415)

38791873984189

Baylor

Invested

$6,678.33

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$197.37

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

ojg

Baylor

Invested

$3,132.57

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$196.97

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Baylor

Invested

$2,844.75

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$15.9

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

Baylor$2,074.7171.9¢+$145.7

Iowa State$770.0427.7¢-$129.8

wowfarm

Baylor

Invested

$3,502.77

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$802.94

Record

71%

4957-1990 (6947)

0xfFFF6537

Baylor

Invested

$1,858.04

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$512.02

Record

49%

1142-1178 (2320)

vibing123CTR

Iowa State

Invested

$1,678.69

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$206.56

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Baylor

Invested

$1,743.48

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$90.23

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

Both legs:

Baylor$971.172.6¢+$58.39

Iowa State$772.3828.5¢-$148.62

hi774cCTR

Iowa State

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1,000

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

LightParadoxCTR

Iowa State

Invested

$1,135.37

Value

$834.8

PnL

-$300.57

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

takeormake

Baylor

Invested

$654.35

Value

$692.87

PnL

+$38.52

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

Pan9X

Baylor

Invested

$1,003.58

Value

$454.57

PnL

+$81.83

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

PT-S7

Baylor

Invested

$91.42

Value

$142.8

PnL

+$52.38

Record

49%

3284-3450 (6734)

VeryLucky888<$100

Baylor

Invested

$28.88

Value

$29.26

PnL

+$0.38

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Research grade

NeutralBaylor at 77%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Baylor

13 of 17 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Baylor wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.