Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (92%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Iowa vs. Northwestern: O/U 45.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 8.5¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 71%
$6.2K
-$70.11
44.8¢ → 8.5¢
-81% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 9%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Under 92%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Mature
32h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IC ic4cream | Underavg 55.2¢ | $2.8K | $3.0K | +$195.11 | 56% 2800-2210 (5010) |
BA Bagwell306CTR | Overavg 45¢ | $1.9K | $1.7K | -$165.17 | 57% 4284-3214 (7498) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 46.5¢ | $876.95 | $675.34 | -$86.06 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 42¢ | $664.15 | $652.83 | +$7.83 | 54% 18557-15589 (34146) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Overavg 46.7¢ | $93.3 | $81.84 | -$11.47 | 54% 542-460 (1002) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $75.82 | -$13.09 | 50% 26504-26107 (52611) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $29.7 | $32.45 | +$2.75 | 50% 8443-8488 (16931) |
Invested
$2,838.67
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$195.11
Record
56%
2800-2210 (5010)
Invested
$1,858.22
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$165.17
Record
57%
4284-3214 (7498)
Invested
$876.95
Value
$675.34
PnL
-$86.06
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$664.15
Value
$652.83
PnL
+$7.83
Record
54%
18557-15589 (34146)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$93.3
Value
$81.84
PnL
-$11.47
Record
54%
542-460 (1002)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$75.82
PnL
-$13.09
Record
50%
26504-26107 (52611)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$32.45
PnL
+$2.75
Record
50%
8443-8488 (16931)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.