Iowa vs. Northwestern

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Iowa (42%) · Iowa at 56¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 8

Iowa56¢Northwestern44¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Iowa

Consensus Traders

Iowa 42%

Total Value

$31.5K

Combined PnL

$50.23

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 55.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralIowa at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iowa

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Iowa56%

Northwestern45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Iowa5 traders

Total Value$19.4K

Total Shares35,043

Combined PnL+$210.41

Northwestern7 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares26,288

Combined PnL-$160.18

Iowa — 42%Northwestern — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Iowa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIowa 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNorthwestern 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrIowa 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Northwestern 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA bands1	Iowaavg 55.6¢	$17.7K	$17.7K	-$23.63	49% 414-427 (841)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Northwesternavg 45.1¢	$9.0K	$8.9K	-$112.41	51% 992-940 (1932)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Northwesternavg 45¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$11.87	54% 18313-15414 (33727)
IC ic4cream	Iowaavg 47.8¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$215.49	56% 2780-2195 (4975)
nigiri99	Iowaavg 52.7¢	$301.72	$314.6	+$12.88	46% 8703-10373 (19076)
NM NM-PCTR	Northwesternavg 45¢	$500	$222.5	-$2.5	64% 10113-5660 (15773)
GC GC-PCTR	Northwesternavg 45¢	$225	$222.5	-$2.5	64% 10131-5728 (15859)
38 38791873984189CTR	Northwesternavg 53.8¢	$101.75	$184.19	-$25.25	48% 62058-66943 (129001)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100	Northwesternavg 53¢	$32.86	$27.59	-$5.27	49% 441-465 (906)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319<$100	Iowaavg 45¢	$22.05	$27.2	+$5.15	55% 3126-2515 (5641)
tradecraft<$100	Iowaavg 52.7¢	$12.43	$12.96	+$0.53	51% 6491-6261 (12752)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Northwesternavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.23	-$0.38	50% 8376-8430 (16806)

bands1

Iowa

Invested

$17,704.67

Value

$17.7K

PnL

-$23.63

Record

49%

414-427 (841)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$9,012.41

Value

$8.9K

PnL

-$112.41

Record

51%

992-940 (1932)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$2,503

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$11.87

Record

54%

18313-15414 (33727)

ic4cream

Iowa

Invested

$1,213.76

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$215.49

Record

56%

2780-2195 (4975)

nigiri99

Iowa

Invested

$301.72

Value

$314.6

PnL

+$12.88

Record

46%

8703-10373 (19076)

NM-PCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$500

Value

$222.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

64%

10113-5660 (15773)

GC-PCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$225

Value

$222.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

64%

10131-5728 (15859)

38791873984189CTR

Northwestern

Invested

$101.75

Value

$184.19

PnL

-$25.25

Record

48%

62058-66943 (129001)

imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$32.86

Value

$27.59

PnL

-$5.27

Record

49%

441-465 (906)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319<$100

Iowa

Invested

$22.05

Value

$27.2

PnL

+$5.15

Record

55%

3126-2515 (5641)

tradecraft<$100

Iowa

Invested

$12.43

Value

$12.96

PnL

+$0.53

Record

51%

6491-6261 (12752)

RLWGCTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$0.38

Record

50%

8376-8430 (16806)

Research grade

NeutralIowa at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Iowa

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Iowa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIowa 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNorthwestern 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrIowa 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Northwestern 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iowa wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.