Illinois vs. UCLA: O/U 49.5

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 89¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Over11¢Under89¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$532.93

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 89¢

+73% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over11%

Under89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares4,271

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Over8 traders

Total Value$985.26

Total Shares3,801

Combined PnL-$829.11

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961	Underavg 51¢	$1.7K	$3.0K	+$1.3K	44% 12-15 (27)
RN1CTR	Overavg 49.4¢	$839.91	$365.28	-$474.63	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
12monkeys	Underavg 55¢	$274.99	$284.99	+$10	38% 15-24 (39)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 46¢	$310.63	$283.62	-$27.01	37% 924-1557 (2481)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 54¢	$344.4	$230.62	+$37.58	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 43¢	$284.68	$142.34	-$142.34	51% 2364-2297 (4661)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 45¢	$105.12	$98.11	-$7.01	48% 852-928 (1780)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 45¢	$87.94	$79.5	+$32.16	53% 750-669 (1419)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 54.3¢	$123.69	$48.99	-$74.71	50% 3678-3623 (7301)
PA PacersThreeandahalf<$100	Underavg 51¢	$20.4	$33.6	+$13.2	61% 1027-652 (1679)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 44.7¢	$50.02	$24.06	-$25.96	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 52.8¢	$97.63	$20.35	-$77.28	44% 418-527 (945)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.7	$2.52	-$0.18	48% 269-290 (559)

0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961

Under

Invested

$1,700.12

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

44%

12-15 (27)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$839.91

Value

$365.28

PnL

-$474.63

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

12monkeys

Under

Invested

$274.99

Value

$284.99

PnL

+$10

Record

38%

15-24 (39)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$310.63

Value

$283.62

PnL

-$27.01

Record

37%

924-1557 (2481)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$344.4

Value

$230.62

PnL

+$37.58

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$284.68

Value

$142.34

PnL

-$142.34

Record

51%

2364-2297 (4661)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$105.12

Value

$98.11

PnL

-$7.01

Record

48%

852-928 (1780)

NotJump<$100

Under

Invested

$87.94

Value

$79.5

PnL

+$32.16

Record

53%

750-669 (1419)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$123.69

Value

$48.99

PnL

-$74.71

Record

50%

3678-3623 (7301)

PacersThreeandahalf<$100

Under

Invested

$20.4

Value

$33.6

PnL

+$13.2

Record

61%

1027-652 (1679)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50.02

Value

$24.06

PnL

-$25.96

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$97.63

Value

$20.35

PnL

-$77.28

Record

44%

418-527 (945)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.52

PnL

-$0.18

Record

48%

269-290 (559)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 89%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.