Spread: UCLA (-8.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold UCLA (22%) · UCLA at 56¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 14

UCLA56¢Illinois44¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UCLA

Consensus Traders

UCLA 22%

Total Value

$25.1K

Combined PnL

$11.63

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 55.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUCLA at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UCLA

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

UCLA56%

Illinois45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UCLA2 traders

Total Value$13.9K

Total Shares25,106

Combined PnL+$27.92

Illinois7 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares24,414

Combined PnL-$16.3

UCLA — 22%Illinois — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on UCLA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrIllinois 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedIllinois 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Illinois 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	UCLAavg 55¢	$8.4K	$8.5K	+$76.73	15% 10-56 (66)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Illinoisavg 45¢	$6.0K	$5.8K	-$57.3	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492	UCLAavg 56¢	$5.5K	$5.4K	-$48.8	0% 0-325 (325)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Illinoisavg 44¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$44.15	44% 26-33 (59)
VeryLucky888CTR	Illinoisavg 45¢	$451.14	$451.17	+$0.03	53% 1030-921 (1951)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Illinoisavg 45.3¢	$447.45	$444.07	-$3.38	48% 677-745 (1422)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Illinoisavg 44.5¢	$393.67	$393.87	+$0.21	47% 191-212 (403)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR	Illinoisavg 45¢	$151.2	$151.2	+$0	55% 248-199 (447)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Illinoisavg 45¢	$4.54	$4.54	+$0	53% 1374-1218 (2592)

lightotunnel35

UCLA

Invested

$8,439.89

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$76.73

Record

15%

10-56 (66)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Illinois

Invested

$6,001.46

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$57.3

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492

UCLA

Invested

$5,466.16

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$48.8

Record

0-325 (325)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Illinois

Invested

$3,885.2

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$44.15

Record

44%

26-33 (59)

VeryLucky888CTR

Illinois

Invested

$451.14

Value

$451.17

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

SnakeBallCTR

Illinois

Invested

$447.45

Value

$444.07

PnL

-$3.38

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Illinois

Invested

$393.67

Value

$393.87

PnL

+$0.21

Record

47%

191-212 (403)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR

Illinois

Invested

$151.2

Value

$151.2

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

248-199 (447)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Illinois

Invested

$4.54

Value

$4.54

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

Research grade

NeutralUCLA at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

UCLA

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on UCLA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrIllinois 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedIllinois 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Illinois 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UCLA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.