Spread: UCLA (-17.5)

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Illinois (38%) · Illinois at 71¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

UCLA30¢Illinois70¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Illinois

Consensus Traders

Illinois 38%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$161.58

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 70.5¢

+21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralIllinois at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Illinois

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

UCLA30%

Illinois71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Illinois5 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares6,519

Combined PnL+$267.07

UCLA8 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares6,660

Combined PnL-$105.49

Illinois — 38%UCLA — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Illinois. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUCLA 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUCLA 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000UCLA 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JokerTheClown	Illinoisavg 55¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$332.29	6% 13-199 (212)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	UCLAavg 45¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$356.03	44% 418-527 (945)
38 38791873984189	Illinoisavg 68.4¢	$1.2K	$793.18	-$89.91	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
MA MadridTimeCTR	UCLAavg 31¢	$264.65	$409.78	+$145.13	37% 924-1557 (2481)
PR primm	Illinoisavg 63.7¢	$331.4	$356.2	+$24.8	59% 899-622 (1521)
nigiri99CTR	UCLAavg 33¢	$198	$231	+$33	52% 499-463 (962)
VE VenusianCTR	UCLAavg 31¢	$72.03	$111.53	+$39.5	36% 890-1596 (2486)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	UCLAavg 31¢	$52.58	$81.41	+$28.83	36% 910-1584 (2494)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Illinoisavg 64¢	$11.69	$12.79	+$1.1	47% 72-82 (154)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	UCLAavg 31¢	$6.9	$10.68	+$3.78	36% 879-1566 (2445)
RN1CTR<$100	UCLAavg 36¢	$8.45	$8.56	+$0.12	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
GH ghorrock<$100	Illinoisavg 69¢	$6.96	$5.75	-$1.21	53% 1556-1404 (2960)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	UCLAavg 35¢	$4	$4.17	+$0.17	53% 750-669 (1419)

JokerTheClown

Illinois

Invested

$2,610.85

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$332.29

Record

13-199 (212)

justaluckydudeCTR

UCLA

Invested

$2,136.15

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$356.03

Record

44%

418-527 (945)

38791873984189

Illinois

Invested

$1,226.25

Value

$793.18

PnL

-$89.91

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

MadridTimeCTR

UCLA

Invested

$264.65

Value

$409.78

PnL

+$145.13

Record

37%

924-1557 (2481)

primm

Illinois

Invested

$331.4

Value

$356.2

PnL

+$24.8

Record

59%

899-622 (1521)

nigiri99CTR

UCLA

Invested

$198

Value

$231

PnL

+$33

Record

52%

499-463 (962)

VenusianCTR

UCLA

Invested

$72.03

Value

$111.53

PnL

+$39.5

Record

36%

890-1596 (2486)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

UCLA

Invested

$52.58

Value

$81.41

PnL

+$28.83

Record

36%

910-1584 (2494)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Illinois

Invested

$11.69

Value

$12.79

PnL

+$1.1

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

LimousinCTR<$100

UCLA

Invested

$6.9

Value

$10.68

PnL

+$3.78

Record

36%

879-1566 (2445)

RN1CTR<$100

UCLA

Invested

$8.45

Value

$8.56

PnL

+$0.12

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

ghorrock<$100

Illinois

Invested

$6.96

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$1.21

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

NotJumpCTR<$100

UCLA

Invested

Value

$4.17

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

750-669 (1419)

Research grade

NeutralIllinois at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Illinois

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Illinois. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUCLA 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUCLA 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000UCLA 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Illinois wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.