Spread: UCLA (-14.5)

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Illinois (46%) · Illinois at 61¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

UCLA40¢Illinois60¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Illinois

Consensus Traders

Illinois 46%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$137.73

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 60.5¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralIllinois at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Illinois

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

UCLA40%

Illinois61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Illinois6 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares7,119

Combined PnL+$11.13

UCLA7 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares6,407

Combined PnL+$126.6

Illinois — 46%UCLA — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Illinois. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on UCLA) and the top 1000 (9 on Illinois) disagree here.

ctrUCLA 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUCLA 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Illinois 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Illinoisavg 56.5¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$149.94	59% 899-622 (1521)
38 38791873984189	Illinoisavg 62.9¢	$3.1K	$1.3K	-$149.9	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
RN1CTR	UCLAavg 42.5¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$106.26	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
JU justaluckydude	Illinoisavg 60.5¢	$873.84	$881.45	+$7.61	44% 418-527 (945)
VE VenusianCTR	UCLAavg 37¢	$529.3	$715.27	+$185.97	36% 890-1596 (2486)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	UCLAavg 43¢	$607.08	$563.72	-$43.36	51% 2364-2297 (4661)
LI LimousinCTR	UCLAavg 37¢	$264.65	$357.64	+$92.99	36% 879-1566 (2445)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	UCLAavg 39.8¢	$68.07	$66.38	-$1.69	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Illinoisavg 58¢	$40.01	$42.08	+$2.07	47% 72-82 (154)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	UCLAavg 39¢	$27.3	$26.25	-$1.05	53% 750-669 (1419)
GH ghorrock<$100	Illinoisavg 63¢	$10.18	$10.99	+$0.81	53% 1556-1404 (2960)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Illinoisavg 55¢	$6.66	$7.27	+$0.61	50% 3678-3623 (7301)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	UCLAavg 41¢	$1.1	$1.12	+$0.01	37% 819-1385 (2204)

primm

Illinois

Invested

$2,119.49

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$149.94

Record

59%

899-622 (1521)

38791873984189

Illinois

Invested

$3,086.88

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$149.9

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

RN1CTR

UCLA

Invested

$1,212.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$106.26

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

justaluckydude

Illinois

Invested

$873.84

Value

$881.45

PnL

+$7.61

Record

44%

418-527 (945)

VenusianCTR

UCLA

Invested

$529.3

Value

$715.27

PnL

+$185.97

Record

36%

890-1596 (2486)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

UCLA

Invested

$607.08

Value

$563.72

PnL

-$43.36

Record

51%

2364-2297 (4661)

LimousinCTR

UCLA

Invested

$264.65

Value

$357.64

PnL

+$92.99

Record

36%

879-1566 (2445)

Pan9XCTR<$100

UCLA

Invested

$68.07

Value

$66.38

PnL

-$1.69

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Illinois

Invested

$40.01

Value

$42.08

PnL

+$2.07

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

NotJumpCTR<$100

UCLA

Invested

$27.3

Value

$26.25

PnL

-$1.05

Record

53%

750-669 (1419)

ghorrock<$100

Illinois

Invested

$10.18

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$0.81

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

6512395314597884<$100

Illinois

Invested

$6.66

Value

$7.27

PnL

+$0.61

Record

50%

3678-3623 (7301)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

UCLA

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.12

PnL

+$0.01

Record

37%

819-1385 (2204)

Research grade

NeutralIllinois at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Illinois

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Illinois. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on UCLA) and the top 1000 (9 on Illinois) disagree here.

ctrUCLA 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUCLA 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Illinois 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Illinois wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.