Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (85%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Illinois vs. Maryland: O/U 53.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 16¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 40%
$1.8K
-$327.37
52.9¢ → 15.5¢
-71% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MastermoneyCTR | Overavg 53¢ | $1.6K | $1.1K | -$543.27 | 47% 213-241 (454) |
0X 0x0A77exmm | Underavg 47¢ | $559.41 | $773.65 | +$214.24 | 54% 2305-1991 (4296) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $9.12 | $12.35 | +$3.23 | 54% 2992-2575 (5567) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $2.22 | $3.28 | +$1.06 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $5.25 | $2.63 | -$2.63 | 57% 13827-10598 (24425) |
Invested
$1,600
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$543.27
Record
47%
213-241 (454)
Invested
$559.41
Value
$773.65
PnL
+$214.24
Record
54%
2305-1991 (4296)
Invested
$9.12
Value
$12.35
PnL
+$3.23
Record
54%
2992-2575 (5567)
Invested
$2.22
Value
$3.28
PnL
+$1.06
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$2.63
PnL
-$2.63
Record
57%
13827-10598 (24425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.