Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (78%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Illinois vs. Maryland: O/U 51.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 22¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 40%
$11.4K
$-2.0K
58.4¢ → 22¢
-62% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MastermoneyCTR | Overavg 58.4¢ | $10.9K | $9.0K | $-2.0K | 47% 213-241 (454) |
FO forecastication4 | Underavg 42¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$68.44 | 49% 1166-1197 (2363) |
HI hi774c | Underavg 40¢ | $974.73 | $974.73 | +$0 | 52% 4733-4453 (9186) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 43.3¢ | $19.18 | $35.2 | +$16.02 | 58% 28754-21204 (49958) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $7.68 | $3.28 | -$4.4 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
Invested
$10,943.55
Value
$9.0K
PnL
$-2.0K
Record
47%
213-241 (454)
Invested
$1,437.24
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$68.44
Record
49%
1166-1197 (2363)
Invested
$974.73
Value
$974.73
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
4733-4453 (9186)
Invested
$19.18
Value
$35.2
PnL
+$16.02
Record
58%
28754-21204 (49958)
Invested
$7.68
Value
$3.28
PnL
-$4.4
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.