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UnderOverOver
RN1<$100UnderUnderOver
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Over — but Under won instead.
Illinois vs. Maryland: O/U 45.5
Resolved Under. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Over. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Over 67%
Total Value
$536.28
Combined PnL
-$112.7
Smart Money Signal
Over
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Over0%
Under100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Under3 traders
Total Value$536.28
Total Shares536
Combined PnL+$284.28
Over3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares929
Combined PnL-$396.98
Under — 50%Over — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA gagarin59 | Underavg 47¢ | $252 | $536.28 | +$284.28 | 51% 699-666 (1365) |
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $729.5 | — | -$320.98 | 47% 331-377 (708) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $76 | — | -$76 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
RN1<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | — | — | +$0 | 54% 56681-48879 (105560) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Underavg 67.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 10788-9397 (20185) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13860-10628 (24488) |
GA
gagarin59Invested
$252
Value
$536.28
PnL
+$284.28
Record
51%
699-666 (1365)
SU
SunflowaRebuildYearCTRInvested
$729.5
Value
—
PnL
-$320.98
Record
47%
331-377 (708)
TO
topdogbigboiCTR<$100Invested
$76
Value
—
PnL
-$76
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
RN1<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
56681-48879 (105560)
JU
justaluckydude<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
10788-9397 (20185)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13860-10628 (24488)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x9b034221...a40442
Slug
cfb-ill-mary-2026-10-31-total-45pt5