Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Illinois, while the market favors Maryland (66%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Illinois (-3.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Illinois (75%) · Illinois at 35¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Illinois35¢Maryland65¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Illinois

Consensus Traders

Illinois 75%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$313.99

Smart Money Entry

43.4¢ → 34.5¢

-21% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralIllinois at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Illinois

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Maryland 66%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Illinois35%

Maryland66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Illinois6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares5,326

Combined PnL-$322.1

Maryland2 traders

Total Value$58.13

Total Shares89

Combined PnL+$8.11

Illinois — 75%Maryland — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Illinois. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIllinois 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrIllinois 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Illinois 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IC ic4creamCTR	Illinoisavg 43¢	$745.62	$745.62	+$0	59% 2641-1851 (4492)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Illinoisavg 43.3¢	$763.09	$607.46	-$155.63	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Illinoisavg 44¢	$691.24	$542	-$149.25	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Illinoisavg 43¢	$65.34	$52.42	-$12.92	39% 419-667 (1086)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	Marylandavg 57¢	$34.39	$39.52	+$5.13	48% 872-961 (1833)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Illinoisavg 43¢	$28.81	$28.81	+$0	50% 3872-3828 (7700)
GH ghorrock<$100	Marylandavg 55¢	$15.63	$18.61	+$2.98	57% 13809-10582 (24391)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Illinoisavg 45¢	$18.45	$14.15	-$4.31	54% 2988-2575 (5563)

ic4creamCTR

Illinois

Invested

$745.62

Value

$745.62

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

2641-1851 (4492)

UpTheBluesCTR

Illinois

Invested

$763.09

Value

$607.46

PnL

-$155.63

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Illinois

Invested

$691.24

Value

$542

PnL

-$149.25

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

OddstormCTR<$100

Illinois

Invested

$65.34

Value

$52.42

PnL

-$12.92

Record

39%

419-667 (1086)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

Maryland

Invested

$34.39

Value

$39.52

PnL

+$5.13

Record

48%

872-961 (1833)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Illinois

Invested

$28.81

Value

$28.81

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3872-3828 (7700)

ghorrock<$100

Maryland

Invested

$15.63

Value

$18.61

PnL

+$2.98

Record

57%

13809-10582 (24391)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Illinois

Invested

$18.45

Value

$14.15

PnL

-$4.31

Record

54%

2988-2575 (5563)

Research grade

NeutralIllinois at 35%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Illinois

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Maryland 66%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Illinois. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIllinois 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrIllinois 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Illinois 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Illinois wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.