Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Illinois, while the market favors Maryland (73%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Illinois (-2.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Illinois (44%) · Illinois at 28¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 31

Illinois28¢Maryland72¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Illinois

Consensus Traders

Illinois 44%

Total Value

$12.6K

Combined PnL

$701.64

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 27.5¢

-46% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidIllinois at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Illinois

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Maryland 73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Illinois28%

Maryland73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Illinois4 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares13,912

Combined PnL-$319.89

Maryland5 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares9,996

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Illinois — 44%Maryland — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Illinois. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIllinois 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMaryland 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Maryland 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Illinoisavg 50¢	$4.9K	$5.1K	+$147.88	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
0X 0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961	Marylandavg 48¢	$2.4K	$2.9K	+$525	48% 227-245 (472)
JO jole24	Marylandavg 49¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$310.65	44% 1020-1277 (2297)
MA MAGATheeStallionCTR	Illinoisavg 53¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$433.9	57% 247-185 (432)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Marylandavg 47¢	$761.26	$947.52	+$186.27	54% 2305-1991 (4296)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR	Illinoisavg 53¢	$137.8	$107.9	-$29.9	54% 2988-2575 (5563)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Marylandavg 75¢	$59.25	$58.46	-$0.79	53% 10787-9397 (20184)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Marylandavg 49¢	$13.23	$13.23	+$0.41	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Illinoisavg 52¢	$10.61	$6.63	-$3.98	57% 13809-10582 (24391)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Illinois

Invested

$4,929.41

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$147.88

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961

Maryland

Invested

$2,400

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$525

Record

48%

227-245 (472)

jole24

Maryland

Invested

$1,602.3

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$310.65

Record

44%

1020-1277 (2297)

MAGATheeStallionCTR

Illinois

Invested

$1,999.69

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$433.9

Record

57%

247-185 (432)

0x0A77exmm

Maryland

Invested

$761.26

Value

$947.52

PnL

+$186.27

Record

54%

2305-1991 (4296)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR

Illinois

Invested

$137.8

Value

$107.9

PnL

-$29.9

Record

54%

2988-2575 (5563)

justaluckydude<$100

Maryland

Invested

$59.25

Value

$58.46

PnL

-$0.79

Record

53%

10787-9397 (20184)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Maryland

Invested

$13.23

Value

$13.23

PnL

+$0.41

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Illinois

Invested

$10.61

Value

$6.63

PnL

-$3.98

Record

57%

13809-10582 (24391)

Research grade

AvoidIllinois at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Illinois

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Maryland 73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Illinois. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIllinois 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMaryland 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Maryland 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Illinois wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.