Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Houston, while the market favors Colorado (58%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Colorado (-6.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Houston (38%) · Houston at 42¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Colorado58¢Houston42¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Houston

Consensus Traders

Houston 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$138.81

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 42¢

-22% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralHouston at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Houston

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Colorado 58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Colorado58%

Houston42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Houston3 traders

Total Value$597.59

Total Shares1,028

Combined PnL+$33.98

Colorado5 traders

Total Value$429.47

Total Shares701

Combined PnL+$104.82

Houston — 38%Colorado — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Houston) and the top 1000 (7 on Colorado) disagree here.

ctrColorado 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedHouston 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colorado 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Coloradoavg 43.5¢	$677.87	$705.69	+$27.81	51% 2426-2359 (4785)
└ Colorado leg	Coloradoavg 43.5¢	$395.39	$391.76	-$3.64
└ Houston leg	Houstonavg 51.2¢	$282.48	$313.93	+$31.45
65 6512395314597884CTR	Houstonavg 54¢	$327.91	$345.45	+$17.54	50% 3738-3712 (7450)
CM cm2897	Coloradoavg 45¢	$193.09	$257.4	+$64.31	49% 1153-1192 (2345)
RN1CTR	Houstonavg 51.1¢	$133.95	$146.88	+$12.93	56% 5169-4141 (9310)
PR primm	Coloradoavg 45¢	$112.88	$126.8	+$20.99	59% 899-623 (1522)
38 38791873984189CTR	Houstonavg 55¢	$101.75	$105.26	+$3.51	48% 3052-3353 (6405)
FO forecastication4<$100	Coloradoavg 12¢	$6.35	$22.82	+$16.47	33% 156-321 (477)
PA Pan9X<$100	Coloradoavg 44¢	$89.14	$18.18	+$1.99	49% 1449-1486 (2935)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Coloradoavg 45¢	$3.2	$4.27	+$1.07	47% 72-82 (154)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Colorado

Invested

$677.87

Value

$705.69

PnL

+$27.81

Record

51%

2426-2359 (4785)

Both legs:

Colorado$395.3943.5¢-$3.64

Houston$282.4851.2¢+$31.45

6512395314597884CTR

Houston

Invested

$327.91

Value

$345.45

PnL

+$17.54

Record

50%

3738-3712 (7450)

cm2897

Colorado

Invested

$193.09

Value

$257.4

PnL

+$64.31

Record

49%

1153-1192 (2345)

RN1CTR

Houston

Invested

$133.95

Value

$146.88

PnL

+$12.93

Record

56%

5169-4141 (9310)

primm

Colorado

Invested

$112.88

Value

$126.8

PnL

+$20.99

Record

59%

899-623 (1522)

38791873984189CTR

Houston

Invested

$101.75

Value

$105.26

PnL

+$3.51

Record

48%

3052-3353 (6405)

forecastication4<$100

Colorado

Invested

$6.35

Value

$22.82

PnL

+$16.47

Record

33%

156-321 (477)

Pan9X<$100

Colorado

Invested

$89.14

Value

$18.18

PnL

+$1.99

Record

49%

1449-1486 (2935)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Colorado

Invested

$3.2

Value

$4.27

PnL

+$1.07

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

Research grade

NeutralHouston at 42%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Houston

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Colorado 58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Houston) and the top 1000 (7 on Colorado) disagree here.

ctrColorado 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedHouston 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colorado 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Houston wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.