Spread: Colorado (-4.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Houston (33%) · Houston at 87¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 14

Colorado14¢Houston86¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Houston

Consensus Traders

Houston 33%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

-$28.8

Smart Money Entry

86.5¢ → 86.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralHouston at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Houston

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Colorado14%

Houston87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Houston3 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares7,797

Combined PnL-$148.1

Colorado6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares7,262

Combined PnL+$119.3

Houston — 33%Colorado — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHouston 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHouston 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Colorado 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Houstonavg 86.4¢	$6.7K	$5.7K	-$127.81	52% 499-463 (962)
FO forecastication4CTR	Coloradoavg 13.5¢	$792.48	$881.51	+$89.04	32% 146-304 (450)
FO Forecastication2	Houstonavg 87¢	$838.32	$819.4	-$18.92	45% 224-272 (496)
38 38791873984189CTR	Coloradoavg 14¢	$196.56	$138.13	+$20.1	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
GA Gaditima<$100	Houstonavg 86.4¢	$86.37	$85	-$1.37	48% 246-262 (508)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Coloradoavg 13¢	$26	$30	+$4	37% 819-1385 (2204)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Coloradoavg 13¢	$23.91	$27.59	+$3.68	17% 55-264 (319)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Coloradoavg 13.4¢	$55.14	$20.85	+$1.99	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Coloradoavg 13.5¢	$5.44	$4.54	+$0.5	53% 1556-1404 (2960)

nigiri99

Houston

Invested

$6,685.24

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$127.81

Record

52%

499-463 (962)

forecastication4CTR

Colorado

Invested

$792.48

Value

$881.51

PnL

+$89.04

Record

32%

146-304 (450)

Forecastication2

Houston

Invested

$838.32

Value

$819.4

PnL

-$18.92

Record

45%

224-272 (496)

38791873984189CTR

Colorado

Invested

$196.56

Value

$138.13

PnL

+$20.1

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

Gaditima<$100

Houston

Invested

$86.37

Value

$85

PnL

-$1.37

Record

48%

246-262 (508)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Colorado

Invested

$26

Value

$30

PnL

+$4

Record

37%

819-1385 (2204)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Colorado

Invested

$23.91

Value

$27.59

PnL

+$3.68

Record

17%

55-264 (319)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Colorado

Invested

$55.14

Value

$20.85

PnL

+$1.99

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Colorado

Invested

$5.44

Value

$4.54

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

Research grade

NeutralHouston at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Houston

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHouston 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHouston 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Colorado 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Houston wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.