Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Houston, while the market favors Colorado (51%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Houston (-7.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Houston (67%) · Houston at 50¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Houston
6
Houston 67%
$2.8K
-$1.62
50¢ → 49.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralHouston at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Colorado 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR | Houstonavg 50¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$74.76 | 48% 2787-3042 (5829) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Coloradoavg 50¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$75.62 | 50% 2262-2219 (4481) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Houstonavg 50¢ | $800 | $200 | +$0 | 75% 112-37 (149) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Houstonavg 50¢ | $76 | $75.24 | -$0.76 | 53% 472-427 (899) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Houstonavg 50¢ | $5 | $5.3 | +$0.3 | 31% 134-299 (433) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Coloradoavg 50¢ | $5.04 | $4.74 | -$0.3 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
Invested
$1,246
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$74.76
Record
48%
2787-3042 (5829)
Invested
$1,260.25
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$75.62
Record
50%
2262-2219 (4481)
Invested
$800
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
75%
112-37 (149)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$76
Value
$75.24
PnL
-$0.76
Record
53%
472-427 (899)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.3
PnL
+$0.3
Record
31%
134-299 (433)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$4.74
PnL
-$0.3
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.