Spread: Houston (-5.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Colorado (80%) · Colorado at 92¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Houston9¢Colorado91¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colorado

Consensus Traders

Colorado 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$435.78

Smart Money Entry

42.9¢ → 91.5¢

+113% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralColorado at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colorado

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Houston9%

Colorado92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colorado8 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,657

Combined PnL+$561.14

Houston2 traders

Total Value$38.14

Total Shares238

Combined PnL-$125.37

Colorado — 80%Houston — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Colorado. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Houston) and the top 1000 (10 on Colorado) disagree here.

whaleColorado 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrColorado 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedHouston 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Colorado 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Coloradoavg 43.8¢	$346.1	$711.68	+$365.58	59% 899-623 (1522)
nigiri99	Coloradoavg 41¢	$209.1	$316.2	+$107.1	52% 523-489 (1012)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Houstonavg 52¢	$432.99	$255.6	-$177.39	51% 2426-2359 (4785)
└ Colorado leg	Coloradoavg 62¢	$136.82	$198.61	+$61.79
└ Houston leg	Houstonavg 52¢	$296.17	$56.99	-$239.18
LI Limousin	Coloradoavg 39¢	$86.58	$137.63	+$51.06	36% 902-1601 (2503)
NO NotJump<$100	Coloradoavg 60¢	$30	$45	+$15	53% 760-685 (1445)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Houstonavg 66¢	$141.83	$30.37	-$111.46	50% 3738-3712 (7450)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Coloradoavg 44.1¢	$12.45	$25.39	+$12.94	47% 72-82 (154)
38 38791873984189<$100	Coloradoavg 62¢	$13.22	$19.19	+$5.97	48% 3052-3353 (6405)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Coloradoavg 18¢	$3.42	$17.1	+$13.68	46% 470-556 (1026)
PA Pan9X<$100	Coloradoavg 62¢	$37.44	$15.48	-$10.18	49% 1449-1486 (2935)
RN1CTR<$100	Houstonavg 57.1¢	$21.68	$7.77	-$13.91	56% 5169-4141 (9310)

primm

Colorado

Invested

$346.1

Value

$711.68

PnL

+$365.58

Record

59%

899-623 (1522)

nigiri99

Colorado

Invested

$209.1

Value

$316.2

PnL

+$107.1

Record

52%

523-489 (1012)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Houston

Invested

$432.99

Value

$255.6

PnL

-$177.39

Record

51%

2426-2359 (4785)

Both legs:

Colorado$136.8262¢+$61.79

Houston$296.1752¢-$239.18

Limousin

Colorado

Invested

$86.58

Value

$137.63

PnL

+$51.06

Record

36%

902-1601 (2503)

NotJump<$100

Colorado

Invested

$30

Value

$45

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

760-685 (1445)

6512395314597884CTR

Houston

Invested

$141.83

Value

$30.37

PnL

-$111.46

Record

50%

3738-3712 (7450)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Colorado

Invested

$12.45

Value

$25.39

PnL

+$12.94

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

38791873984189<$100

Colorado

Invested

$13.22

Value

$19.19

PnL

+$5.97

Record

48%

3052-3353 (6405)

justaluckydude<$100

Colorado

Invested

$3.42

Value

$17.1

PnL

+$13.68

Record

46%

470-556 (1026)

Pan9X<$100

Colorado

Invested

$37.44

Value

$15.48

PnL

-$10.18

Record

49%

1449-1486 (2935)

RN1CTR<$100

Houston

Invested

$21.68

Value

$7.77

PnL

-$13.91

Record

56%

5169-4141 (9310)

Research grade

NeutralColorado at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Colorado

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Colorado. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Houston) and the top 1000 (10 on Colorado) disagree here.

whaleColorado 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrColorado 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedHouston 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Colorado 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colorado wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.