Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Houston, while the market favors Colorado (92%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Houston (-4.5)
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Houston (50%) · Houston at 8.0¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Houston
8
Houston 50%
$1.6K
$54.2
56.1¢ → 8¢
-86% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidHouston at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Colorado 92%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primm | Coloradoavg 44¢ | $607.2 | $1.2K | +$634.8 | 59% 899-623 (1522) |
LI LightParadox | Coloradoavg 37¢ | $85.87 | $132.29 | +$46.42 | 36% 930-1626 (2556) |
 RN1CTR | Houstonavg 56.1¢ | $465.52 | $95.51 | -$370.01 | 56% 5169-4141 (9310) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Houstonavg 56¢ | $310.58 | $63.78 | -$246.8 | 48% 3052-3353 (6405) |
AM AmericaFirst1<$100 | Coloradoavg 44¢ | $21.76 | $44.51 | +$22.75 | 47% 72-82 (154) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Houstonavg 56¢ | $42.56 | $8.74 | -$33.82 | 49% 1449-1486 (2935) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Houstonavg 63¢ | $6.35 | $5.64 | -$0.71 | 52% 1608-1475 (3083) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Coloradoavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $4.43 | +$1.57 | 57% 3492-2606 (6098) |
Invested
$607.2
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$634.8
Record
59%
899-623 (1522)
Invested
$85.87
Value
$132.29
PnL
+$46.42
Record
36%
930-1626 (2556)
RN1CTRInvested
$465.52
Value
$95.51
PnL
-$370.01
Record
56%
5169-4141 (9310)
Invested
$310.58
Value
$63.78
PnL
-$246.8
Record
48%
3052-3353 (6405)
Invested
$21.76
Value
$44.51
PnL
+$22.75
Record
47%
72-82 (154)
Invested
$42.56
Value
$8.74
PnL
-$33.82
Record
49%
1449-1486 (2935)
Invested
$6.35
Value
$5.64
PnL
-$0.71
Record
52%
1608-1475 (3083)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$4.43
PnL
+$1.57
Record
57%
3492-2606 (6098)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.