Spread: Houston (-3.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Colorado (50%) · Colorado at 90¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Houston11¢Colorado89¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colorado

Consensus Traders

Colorado 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$166.63

Smart Money Entry

40.7¢ → 89.5¢

+120% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralColorado at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colorado

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Houston11%

Colorado90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colorado4 traders

Total Value$876.33

Total Shares1,151

Combined PnL+$400.84

Houston4 traders

Total Value$189.93

Total Shares740

Combined PnL-$234.21

Colorado — 50%Houston — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Colorado. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColorado 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrColorado 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedColorado 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Colorado 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Coloradoavg 41¢	$211.97	$447.21	+$235.23	59% 899-623 (1522)
nigiri99	Coloradoavg 36¢	$162.72	$298.32	+$135.6	52% 523-489 (1012)
RN1	Coloradoavg 53¢	$93.22	$114.41	+$21.19	56% 5169-4141 (9310)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Houstonavg 47¢	$94	$92	-$2	20% 18-72 (90)
38 38791873984189CTR	Houstonavg 59¢	$282.07	$70.11	-$206.9	48% 3052-3353 (6405)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Houstonavg 56.3¢	$70.18	$24.2	-$14.45	49% 1449-1486 (2935)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Coloradoavg 40¢	$7.58	$16.39	+$8.81	47% 72-82 (154)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Houstonavg 60¢	$14.47	$3.62	-$10.85	50% 3738-3712 (7450)

primm

Colorado

Invested

$211.97

Value

$447.21

PnL

+$235.23

Record

59%

899-623 (1522)

nigiri99

Colorado

Invested

$162.72

Value

$298.32

PnL

+$135.6

Record

52%

523-489 (1012)

RN1

Colorado

Invested

$93.22

Value

$114.41

PnL

+$21.19

Record

56%

5169-4141 (9310)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Houston

Invested

$94

Value

$92

PnL

-$2

Record

20%

18-72 (90)

38791873984189CTR

Houston

Invested

$282.07

Value

$70.11

PnL

-$206.9

Record

48%

3052-3353 (6405)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Houston

Invested

$70.18

Value

$24.2

PnL

-$14.45

Record

49%

1449-1486 (2935)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Colorado

Invested

$7.58

Value

$16.39

PnL

+$8.81

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Houston

Invested

$14.47

Value

$3.62

PnL

-$10.85

Record

50%

3738-3712 (7450)

Research grade

NeutralColorado at 90%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Colorado

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Colorado. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColorado 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrColorado 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedColorado 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Colorado 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colorado wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.