Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Houston, while the market favors Colorado (55%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Houston (-10.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Houston (60%) · Houston at 45¢ · $254 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Houston
5
Houston 60%
$253.65
-$10.91
47.7¢ → 45¢
-6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralHouston at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Colorado 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Houstonavg 48¢ | $177.44 | $166.35 | -$11.09 | 48% 190-206 (396) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Houstonavg 46¢ | $31.28 | $30.6 | -$0.68 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Coloradoavg 51¢ | $24.48 | $26.4 | +$1.92 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | Houstonavg 48¢ | $27.04 | $25.35 | -$1.69 | 61% 900-577 (1477) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Coloradoavg 48¢ | $4.32 | $4.95 | +$0.63 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
Invested
$177.44
Value
$166.35
PnL
-$11.09
Record
48%
190-206 (396)
Invested
$31.28
Value
$30.6
PnL
-$0.68
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
Invested
$24.48
Value
$26.4
PnL
+$1.92
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$27.04
Value
$25.35
PnL
-$1.69
Record
61%
900-577 (1477)
Invested
$4.32
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0.63
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.