Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Harvard, while the market favors Dartmouth (56%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Harvard (-10.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Harvard (71%) · Harvard at 45¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30

Harvard45¢Dartmouth55¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Harvard

Consensus Traders

Harvard 71%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$24.84

Smart Money Entry

46.4¢ → 44.5¢

-4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralHarvard at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Harvard

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Dartmouth 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Harvard45%

Dartmouth56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Harvard5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,259

Combined PnL-$28.12

Dartmouth2 traders

Total Value$342.57

Total Shares618

Combined PnL+$3.28

Harvard — 71%Dartmouth — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189CTR	Harvardavg 46.4¢	$611.61	$599.32	-$12.29	46% 7951-9381 (17332)
MD mde4life1986	Dartmouthavg 55¢	$332.53	$335.55	+$3.02	49% 152-156 (308)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Harvardavg 46.7¢	$303.43	$289.19	-$14.24	54% 17115-14333 (31448)
BA BayupatiCTR	Harvardavg 46¢	$103.78	$103.78	-$1.13	51% 219-209 (428)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Harvardavg 45¢	$31.3	$30.95	-$0.35	38% 377-619 (996)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Dartmouthavg 52¢	$6.76	$7.02	+$0.26	50% 6969-6968 (13937)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Harvardavg 47¢	$5.17	$5.06	-$0.11	54% 2975-2554 (5529)

38791873984189CTR

Harvard

Invested

$611.61

Value

$599.32

PnL

-$12.29

Record

46%

7951-9381 (17332)

mde4life1986

Dartmouth

Invested

$332.53

Value

$335.55

PnL

+$3.02

Record

49%

152-156 (308)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Harvard

Invested

$303.43

Value

$289.19

PnL

-$14.24

Record

54%

17115-14333 (31448)

BayupatiCTR

Harvard

Invested

$103.78

Value

$103.78

PnL

-$1.13

Record

51%

219-209 (428)

OddstormCTR<$100

Harvard

Invested

$31.3

Value

$30.95

PnL

-$0.35

Record

38%

377-619 (996)

Forecastication2<$100

Dartmouth

Invested

$6.76

Value

$7.02

PnL

+$0.26

Record

50%

6969-6968 (13937)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Harvard

Invested

$5.17

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$0.11

Record

54%

2975-2554 (5529)

Research grade

NeutralHarvard at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Harvard

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Dartmouth 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Harvard wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.