Georgetown vs. Fordham

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Fordham (92%) · Fordham at 71¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Georgetown30¢Fordham70¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Fordham

Consensus Traders

Fordham 92%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$107.43

Smart Money Entry

44.8¢ → 70.5¢

+58% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralFordham at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fordham

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Georgetown30%

Fordham71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Fordham11 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,093

Combined PnL+$179.4

Georgetown1 trader

Total Value$355.43

Total Shares1,128

Combined PnL-$286.83

Fordham — 92%Georgetown — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Fordham. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFordham 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGeorgetown 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Fordham 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Fordhamavg 43.3¢	$441.57	$438.92	-$2.66	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
PT PT-S7	Fordhamavg 45¢	$266.69	$377.45	+$115.53	26% 79-227 (306)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Georgetownavg 56.9¢	$642.26	$355.43	-$286.83	46% 497-591 (1088)
scootergene	Fordhamavg 39.4¢	$168.19	$251.68	+$83.49	6% 9-139 (148)
0X 0xfFFF6537	Fordhamavg 43.2¢	$180.01	$179.22	-$0.79	38% 53-87 (140)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Georgetownavg 50¢	$105	$111.15	+$6.15	52% 833-779 (1612)
└ Georgetown leg	Georgetownavg 50¢	$52.5	$59.7	+$7.2
└ Fordham leg	Fordhamavg 50¢	$52.5	$51.45	-$1.05
65 6512395314597884	Fordhamavg 57¢	$123.76	$101.72	-$22.04	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Fordhamavg 43¢	$86	$86	+$0	48% 281-299 (580)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Fordhamavg 64¢	$46.99	$46.64	-$0.35	38% 550-887 (1437)
dips.<$100	Fordhamavg 57¢	$44.55	$44.15	-$0.39	47% 973-1108 (2081)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Fordhamavg 45.3¢	$34.52	$43.09	+$8.57	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
PA Pan9X<$100	Fordhamavg 48¢	$12.71	$11.39	-$1.32	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Fordhamavg 62¢	$3.1	$2.45	-$0.65	83% 729-152 (881)

38791873984189

Fordham

Invested

$441.57

Value

$438.92

PnL

-$2.66

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

PT-S7

Fordham

Invested

$266.69

Value

$377.45

PnL

+$115.53

Record

26%

79-227 (306)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Georgetown

Invested

$642.26

Value

$355.43

PnL

-$286.83

Record

46%

497-591 (1088)

scootergene

Fordham

Invested

$168.19

Value

$251.68

PnL

+$83.49

Record

9-139 (148)

0xfFFF6537

Fordham

Invested

$180.01

Value

$179.22

PnL

-$0.79

Record

38%

53-87 (140)

NotJumpARB<$100

Georgetown

Invested

$105

Value

$111.15

PnL

+$6.15

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

Both legs:

Georgetown$52.550¢+$7.2

Fordham$52.550¢-$1.05

6512395314597884

Fordham

Invested

$123.76

Value

$101.72

PnL

-$22.04

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

thirdt1me<$100

Fordham

Invested

$86

Value

$86

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

281-299 (580)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Fordham

Invested

$46.99

Value

$46.64

PnL

-$0.35

Record

38%

550-887 (1437)

dips.<$100

Fordham

Invested

$44.55

Value

$44.15

PnL

-$0.39

Record

47%

973-1108 (2081)

topdogbigboi<$100

Fordham

Invested

$34.52

Value

$43.09

PnL

+$8.57

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

Pan9X<$100

Fordham

Invested

$12.71

Value

$11.39

PnL

-$1.32

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Fordham

Invested

$3.1

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.65

Record

83%

729-152 (881)

Research grade

NeutralFordham at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Fordham

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Fordham. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFordham 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGeorgetown 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Fordham 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fordham wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.