Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (76%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Georgia Tech vs. Pittsburgh: O/U 55.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 24¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 63%
$11.8K
$45.5
47¢ → 24¢
-49% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Under 76%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $5.8K | $5.6K | -$248.17 | 54% 17200-14430 (31630) |
LI lightotunnel35 | Underavg 54¢ | $4.0K | $4.3K | +$334.29 | 57% 64-49 (113) |
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$53.18 | 54% 2311-1998 (4309) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 51¢ | $267.75 | $286.13 | +$18.38 | 59% 46230-32531 (78761) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Overavg 48¢ | $239.52 | $224.55 | -$14.97 | 50% 7049-7061 (14110) |
NA NatoAlfista | Underavg 51¢ | $144.33 | $154.24 | +$9.91 | 50% 3891-3854 (7745) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $21.15 | $20.25 | -$0.9 | 58% 28900-21323 (50223) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $13.5 | $13.65 | +$0.15 | 48% 8249-8767 (17016) |
Invested
$5,832
Value
$5.6K
PnL
-$248.17
Record
54%
17200-14430 (31630)
Invested
$3,982.3
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$334.29
Record
57%
64-49 (113)
Invested
$1,249.73
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$53.18
Record
54%
2311-1998 (4309)
Invested
$267.75
Value
$286.13
PnL
+$18.38
Record
59%
46230-32531 (78761)
Invested
$239.52
Value
$224.55
PnL
-$14.97
Record
50%
7049-7061 (14110)
Invested
$144.33
Value
$154.24
PnL
+$9.91
Record
50%
3891-3854 (7745)
Invested
$21.15
Value
$20.25
PnL
-$0.9
Record
58%
28900-21323 (50223)
Invested
$13.5
Value
$13.65
PnL
+$0.15
Record
48%
8249-8767 (17016)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.