Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Georgia Tech, while the market favors Pittsburgh (50%). 0 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Pittsburgh (-8.5)
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia Tech (86%) · Georgia Tech at 50¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Georgia Tech
7
Georgia Tech 86%
$3.2K
-$525.42
48¢ → 50¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralGeorgia Tech at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Pittsburgh 50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justaluckydude | Georgia Techavg 48¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$188.47 | 53% 10816-9436 (20252) |
HI hi774c | Georgia Techavg 50¢ | $689.05 | $709.72 | +$20.67 | 52% 4749-4468 (9217) |
 VeryLucky888 | Georgia Techavg 47¢ | $940 | $550 | -$390 | 58% 42202-30652 (72854) |
BO BoggsFromShawshank | Georgia Techavg 47¢ | $320.62 | $351.32 | +$30.7 | 51% 1094-1053 (2147) |
GH ghorrock | Georgia Techavg 49.4¢ | $107.62 | $111.44 | +$3.82 | 57% 13944-10725 (24669) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Pittsburghavg 51¢ | $51.52 | $48.99 | -$2.53 | 54% 17200-14430 (31630) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Georgia Techavg 50¢ | $13 | $13.39 | +$0.39 | 58% 28900-21323 (50223) |
Invested
$1,647.92
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$188.47
Record
53%
10816-9436 (20252)
Invested
$689.05
Value
$709.72
PnL
+$20.67
Record
52%
4749-4468 (9217)
VeryLucky888Invested
$940
Value
$550
PnL
-$390
Record
58%
42202-30652 (72854)
Invested
$320.62
Value
$351.32
PnL
+$30.7
Record
51%
1094-1053 (2147)
Invested
$107.62
Value
$111.44
PnL
+$3.82
Record
57%
13944-10725 (24669)
Invested
$51.52
Value
$48.99
PnL
-$2.53
Record
54%
17200-14430 (31630)
Invested
$13
Value
$13.39
PnL
+$0.39
Record
58%
28900-21323 (50223)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.