Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Georgia Tech, while the market favors Pittsburgh (78%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Pittsburgh (-7.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia Tech (71%) · Georgia Tech at 22¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Pittsburgh78¢Georgia Tech22¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Georgia Tech

Consensus Traders

Georgia Tech 71%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$81.98

Smart Money Entry

46.2¢ → 22¢

-52% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidGeorgia Tech at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia Tech

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Pittsburgh 78%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pittsburgh78%

Georgia Tech22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pittsburgh2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,084

Combined PnL-$77.89

Georgia Tech5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,916

Combined PnL+$159.87

Pittsburgh — 29%Georgia Tech — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Pittsburghavg 54¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$75.13	54% 17200-14430 (31630)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Georgia Techavg 46¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$79.15	53% 10816-9436 (20252)
JO jole24CTR	Georgia Techavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$75	44% 1025-1280 (2305)
VeryLucky888CTR	Georgia Techavg 48¢	$239.82	$242.31	+$2.5	58% 42202-30652 (72854)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Georgia Techavg 47.9¢	$63.57	$64.43	+$0.86	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Georgia Techavg 46.5¢	$54.78	$57.13	+$2.36	57% 13944-10725 (24669)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Pittsburghavg 55¢	$43.45	$40.69	-$2.77	54% 3023-2604 (5627)

HomeRunHazard

Pittsburgh

Invested

$1,622.7

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$75.13

Record

54%

17200-14430 (31630)

justaluckydudeCTR

Georgia Tech

Invested

$1,456.36

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$79.15

Record

53%

10816-9436 (20252)

jole24CTR

Georgia Tech

Invested

$1,380

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$75

Record

44%

1025-1280 (2305)

VeryLucky888CTR

Georgia Tech

Invested

$239.82

Value

$242.31

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

42202-30652 (72854)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Georgia Tech

Invested

$63.57

Value

$64.43

PnL

+$0.86

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Georgia Tech

Invested

$54.78

Value

$57.13

PnL

+$2.36

Record

57%

13944-10725 (24669)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Pittsburgh

Invested

$43.45

Value

$40.69

PnL

-$2.77

Record

54%

3023-2604 (5627)

Research grade

AvoidGeorgia Tech at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia Tech

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Pittsburgh 78%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgia Tech wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.9%

22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$318.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

418.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.