Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Georgia Tech, while the market favors Pittsburgh (93%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Georgia Tech vs. Pittsburgh

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia Tech (56%) · Georgia Tech at 7.5¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Georgia Tech8¢Pittsburgh92¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Georgia Tech

Consensus Traders

Georgia Tech 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$67.4

Smart Money Entry

25.5¢ → 7.5¢

-71% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidGeorgia Tech at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia Tech

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Pittsburgh 93%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Georgia Tech8%

Pittsburgh93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia Tech5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares9,968

Combined PnL+$26.66

Pittsburgh4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,808

Combined PnL+$40.74

Georgia Tech — 56%Pittsburgh — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774cCTR	Georgia Techavg 26¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$115.38	52% 4749-4468 (9217)
ET ethanazCTR	Georgia Techavg 25¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0	52% 670-626 (1296)
NooseracARB<$100	Georgia Techavg 25¢	$1.1K	$847.75	-$273.15	52% 5791-5380 (11171)
└ Georgia Tech leg	Georgia Techavg 25¢	$786	$518.76	-$267.24
└ Pittsburgh leg	Pittsburghavg 85¢	$334.9	$328.99	-$5.91
GA gagarin59	Pittsburghavg 79¢	$693.62	$724.35	+$30.73	51% 701-671 (1372)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Pittsburghavg 75¢	$507.81	$518	+$10.19	52% 13853-12630 (26483)
TO torta.tech	Pittsburghavg 84¢	$226.8	$225.45	-$1.35	63% 8171-4892 (13063)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Georgia Techavg 24¢	$124.14	$105.27	-$18.87	58% 18714-13779 (32493)
└ Georgia Tech leg	Georgia Techavg 24¢	$99.84	$81.12	-$18.72
└ Pittsburgh leg	Pittsburghavg 81¢	$24.3	$24.15	-$0.15
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Georgia Techavg 15¢	$15	$16.5	+$1.5	48% 8249-8767 (17016)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Georgia Techavg 22¢	$14.54	$14.23	-$0.31	53% 10816-9436 (20252)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Pittsburghavg 59¢	$4.78	$5.84	+$1.18	53% 407-358 (765)
HI hithitfarCTR	Georgia Techavg 87.9¢	$120.68	$1.54	-$89.92	57% 598-449 (1047)

hi774cCTR

Georgia Tech

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$115.38

Record

52%

4749-4468 (9217)

ethanazCTR

Georgia Tech

Invested

$1,012.5

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

670-626 (1296)

NooseracARB<$100

Georgia Tech

Invested

$1,120.9

Value

$847.75

PnL

-$273.15

Record

52%

5791-5380 (11171)

Both legs:

Georgia Tech$78625¢-$267.24

Pittsburgh$334.985¢-$5.91

gagarin59

Pittsburgh

Invested

$693.62

Value

$724.35

PnL

+$30.73

Record

51%

701-671 (1372)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Pittsburgh

Invested

$507.81

Value

$518

PnL

+$10.19

Record

52%

13853-12630 (26483)

torta.tech

Pittsburgh

Invested

$226.8

Value

$225.45

PnL

-$1.35

Record

63%

8171-4892 (13063)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Georgia Tech

Invested

$124.14

Value

$105.27

PnL

-$18.87

Record

58%

18714-13779 (32493)

Both legs:

Georgia Tech$99.8424¢-$18.72

Pittsburgh$24.381¢-$0.15

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Georgia Tech

Invested

$15

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

48%

8249-8767 (17016)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Georgia Tech

Invested

$14.54

Value

$14.23

PnL

-$0.31

Record

53%

10816-9436 (20252)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Pittsburgh

Invested

$4.78

Value

$5.84

PnL

+$1.18

Record

53%

407-358 (765)

hithitfarCTR

Georgia Tech

Invested

$120.68

Value

$1.54

PnL

-$89.92

Record

57%

598-449 (1047)

Research grade

AvoidGeorgia Tech at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia Tech

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Pittsburgh 93%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgia Tech wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.9%

7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1025.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

1125.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.