Georgia Tech vs. Clemson: O/U 47.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 51¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$40.88

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 50.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,450

Combined PnL+$16.14

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,451

Combined PnL-$57.02

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$13.6	50% 2523-2479 (5002)
HI hi774c	Overavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$10.82	22% 179-618 (797)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Overavg 53¢	$548.33	$527.64	-$20.69	49% 536-565 (1101)
GC GC-P	Overavg 52¢	$364	$346.5	-$17.5	37% 353-603 (956)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 46¢	$264.2	$278.56	+$14.36	36% 948-1669 (2617)
NM NM-P	Overavg 50.2¢	$227.02	$223.74	-$3.28	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 47¢	$216.61	$223.52	+$6.91	37% 960-1662 (2622)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 46¢	$161	$169.75	+$8.75	36% 933-1644 (2577)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 56¢	$53.33	$48.57	-$4.76	46% 2653-3138 (5791)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$28.42	$28.13	-$0.29	43% 180-241 (421)
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 50¢	$3	$3.03	+$0.03	37% 970-1635 (2605)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$1,502.01

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$13.6

Record

50%

2523-2479 (5002)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$1,081.55

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10.82

Record

22%

179-618 (797)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Over

Invested

$548.33

Value

$527.64

PnL

-$20.69

Record

49%

536-565 (1101)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$364

Value

$346.5

PnL

-$17.5

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$264.2

Value

$278.56

PnL

+$14.36

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$227.02

Value

$223.74

PnL

-$3.28

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$216.61

Value

$223.52

PnL

+$6.91

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$161

Value

$169.75

PnL

+$8.75

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$53.33

Value

$48.57

PnL

-$4.76

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.42

Value

$28.13

PnL

-$0.29

Record

43%

180-241 (421)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.